{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cac6bc9f-a458-4b00-b57f-8885eb7913a9", "symbol": "SFRN", "name": "Sufrin Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.136, "architecture_energy": 67.838, "architecture_maturity": 76.066, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 29.97, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 56.55, "rotation_down": 56.29, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.3716, 6.521309, 190.191483, 327.58011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.071, "trend_reference": 489.201798, "distance_from_trend": -0.98759, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 680.114215, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.991074, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.101437, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.992041, "excess_performance": -1.020941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.98759, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332503, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.991074, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.986489, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.991014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.71483, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.992041, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.145707, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21952, "relative_activity": 1.309809, "balance": 0.145707, "dry_up": 1.079733, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 10.37154, "annualized_volatility": 6.351116, "from_high_reference": -0.992842, "from_low_reference": 0.012508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 489.201798, "fair_value_reference": 680.114215, "structural_low": 5.996, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.024459, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.019514, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.292675, "worst_return": -0.990347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.034858, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.086858, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.433575, "worst_return": -0.196793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.139015, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.045271, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.151458, "worst_return": -0.990878, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-67.34575, "energy": 88.278139, "activity_lines": [ 6.676867, 81.181053, 311.54794, 430.933714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.511, "volume": 21231, "typical_volume": 16095.8, "trend": 541.257399, "fair_value": 689.454624, "relative_strength": -99.112992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.271506, "energy": 78.421937, "activity_lines": [ 6.6198, 43.919218, 267.594173, 395.039561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.461, "volume": 9823, "typical_volume": 16225.25, "trend": 516.896099, "fair_value": 684.706202, "relative_strength": -99.069851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.16628, "energy": 68.088129, "activity_lines": [ 6.5534, 19.095364, 227.206545, 360.536568 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.071, "volume": 21952, "typical_volume": 16759.7, "trend": 489.201798, "fair_value": 680.114215, "relative_strength": -99.101437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.135717, "energy": 67.83848, "activity_lines": [ 6.3716, 6.521309, 190.191483, 327.58011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }