{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cacf0e7d-afce-4c90-a749-b45acd35c45f", "symbol": "FTEK", "name": "Fuel Tech Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.689, "architecture_energy": 19.794, "architecture_maturity": 29.496, "architecture_confidence": 71.012, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.02, "rotation_up": 18.59, "upward_expansion": 53.55, "deceleration": 90.75, "rotation_down": 41.75, "downward_expansion": 21.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.467667, 1.571818, 1.545571, 1.495656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.4, "trend_reference": 1.449333, "distance_from_trend": -0.034039, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.4251, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.017613, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.762908, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.014493, "excess_performance": -0.172961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034039, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036881, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.017613, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100795, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.347629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033917, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014493, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.062307, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 830064, "relative_activity": 0.600576, "balance": 2.062307, "dry_up": 0.415762, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.183456, "annualized_volatility": 0.744183, "from_high_reference": -0.616438, "from_low_reference": 0.196581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.449333, "fair_value_reference": 1.4251, "structural_low": 1.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.012868, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.006377, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.619469, "worst_return": -0.126984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.040984, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.046271, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.530973, "worst_return": -0.191176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.071154, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.028121, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.628319, "worst_return": -0.213235, "sufficient": true 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048649, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.75625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.386667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005848, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08982, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044068, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130233, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.160714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.11, "volume": 344228, "typical_volume": 868214.95, "trend": 1.30413, "fair_value": 1.797831, "relative_strength": -28.23195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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1.469167, "fair_value": 1.420837, "relative_strength": -29.815277, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.267874, "energy": 61.203731, "activity_lines": [ 1.721333, 1.648818, 1.551643, 1.498032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.545, "volume": 469756, "typical_volume": 1396932.3, "trend": 1.466333, "fair_value": 1.422664, "relative_strength": -26.730342, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.390211, "energy": 26.955527, "activity_lines": [ 1.651667, 1.640545, 1.559762, 1.502925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.41, "volume": 510991, "typical_volume": 1362237.1, "trend": 1.456333, "fair_value": 1.423818, "relative_strength": -32.397963, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.062124, "energy": 17.257656, "activity_lines": [ 1.536667, 1.606455, 1.553524, 1.49929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.4, "volume": 830064, "typical_volume": 1382112.55, "trend": 1.449333, "fair_value": 1.4251, "relative_strength": -34.762908, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.688958, "energy": 19.793695, "activity_lines": [ 1.467667, 1.571818, 1.545571, 1.495656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }