{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cacf39f7-3208-49da-a196-17aea5f49edf", "symbol": "UCAS3", "name": "Unicasa Ind\u00fastria de M\u00f3veis S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.933, "architecture_energy": 67.057, "architecture_maturity": 29.468, "architecture_confidence": 88.45, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 19.23, "upward_expansion": 13.98, "deceleration": 42.66, "rotation_down": 65.34, "downward_expansion": 89.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.152667, 1.175273, 1.237571, 1.288086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.15, "trend_reference": 1.337, "distance_from_trend": -0.139865, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.768731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.349816, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.055231, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.184397, "excess_performance": -0.127349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139865, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042264, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.349816, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077447, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170552, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001561, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.184397, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 19.180332, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48700, "relative_activity": 0.076291, "balance": 19.180332, "dry_up": 0.123483, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066221, "annualized_volatility": 0.240576, "from_high_reference": -0.27673, "from_low_reference": 0.036036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.337, "fair_value_reference": 1.768731, "structural_low": 1.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.015025, "positive_rate": 0.425, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.024931, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.253165, "worst_return": -0.185567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.031574, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.021691, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.138211, "worst_return": -0.285294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.119954, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.174016, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.023568, "worst_return": -0.221448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.200115, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.32863, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.087541, "worst_return": -0.3013, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069297, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043637, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.217456, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156977, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072848, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137405, "active": 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1.309714, 1.341054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.2, "volume": 46300, "typical_volume": 655110.0, "trend": 1.362, "fair_value": 1.797636, "relative_strength": -16.273107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.819347, "energy": 70.5649, "activity_lines": [ 1.201333, 1.230364, 1.294, 1.330022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.13, "volume": 77600, "typical_volume": 649825.0, "trend": 1.352667, "fair_value": 1.78794, "relative_strength": -20.608561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.268891, "energy": 67.444042, "activity_lines": [ 1.177333, 1.207273, 1.272857, 1.315054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.13, "volume": 142700, "typical_volume": 645335.0, "trend": 1.345333, "fair_value": 1.778024, "relative_strength": -21.594928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.949775, "energy": 59.005654, "activity_lines": [ 1.159333, 1.187818, 1.253429, 1.300688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.15, "volume": 48700, "typical_volume": 638345.0, "trend": 1.337, "fair_value": 1.768731, "relative_strength": -17.055231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.933289, "energy": 67.056612, "activity_lines": [ 1.152667, 1.175273, 1.237571, 1.288086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }