{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cad74ef8-092a-4bb4-93dd-f3983a5a7903", "symbol": "CTEK", "name": "CTEK AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.944, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.875, "architecture_energy": 10.643, "architecture_maturity": 19.026, "architecture_confidence": 62.061, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.98, "rotation_up": 44.49, "upward_expansion": 28.35, "deceleration": 45.79, "rotation_down": 18.38, "downward_expansion": 26.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.992, 13.759636, 14.052381, 14.180172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.28, "trend_reference": 14.166667, "distance_from_trend": 0.008, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.30141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.124002, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.695206, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.059347, "excess_performance": -0.002147, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021438, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.124002, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016904, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066952, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0004, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059347, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.759681, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87750, "relative_activity": 0.305642, "balance": 2.759681, "dry_up": 0.726966, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059901, "annualized_volatility": 0.306384, "from_high_reference": -0.147971, "from_low_reference": 0.170492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.166667, "fair_value_reference": 16.30141, "structural_low": 12.7, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.003968, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.031158, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.118182, "worst_return": -0.046314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011382, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.090521, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.215152, "worst_return": -0.181731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.027123, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114243, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.010606, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.15741, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.277048, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.05482, "worst_return": -0.26, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042553, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.027491, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165842, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017054, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.00626, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": 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14.435333, 14.298237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.5, "volume": 69530, "typical_volume": 344707.15, "trend": 14.002, "fair_value": 16.536282, "relative_strength": -12.93769, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.754106, "energy": 47.338911, "activity_lines": [ 13.5, 13.887636, 14.336381, 14.267183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.02, "volume": 175001, "typical_volume": 324653.0, "trend": 14.005333, "fair_value": 16.482051, "relative_strength": -13.445759, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.886627, "energy": 57.65404, "activity_lines": [ 13.298667, 13.669818, 14.197714, 14.203828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.34, "volume": 126536, "typical_volume": 308078.2, "trend": 14.028, "fair_value": 16.436795, "relative_strength": -9.812848, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.15905, "energy": 47.273265, "activity_lines": [ 13.289333, 13.562545, 14.09781, 14.160903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.18, "volume": 547437, "typical_volume": 308160.05, "trend": 14.074, "fair_value": 16.395897, "relative_strength": -5.070096, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.587175, "energy": 21.2742, "activity_lines": [ 13.58, 13.629455, 14.084191, 14.17071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.06, "volume": 73126, "typical_volume": 293409.35, "trend": 14.119333, "fair_value": 16.353333, "relative_strength": -6.770373, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.388706, "energy": 10.449078, "activity_lines": [ 13.772, 13.670545, 14.058762, 14.169807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.28, "volume": 87750, "typical_volume": 287100.4, "trend": 14.166667, "fair_value": 16.30141, "relative_strength": -6.695206, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.875244, "energy": 10.642796, "activity_lines": [ 13.992, 13.759636, 14.052381, 14.180172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }