{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cadf5a98-b59a-4296-a672-44c542fc1fea", "symbol": "GOOS", "name": "Canada Goose Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.302, "architecture_energy": 62.094, "architecture_maturity": 66.731, "architecture_confidence": 90.072, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.79, "rotation_up": 17.14, "upward_expansion": 11.58, "deceleration": 42.64, "rotation_down": 66.47, "downward_expansion": 87.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.034667, 9.305091, 9.765048, 10.157699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.77, "trend_reference": 10.749333, "distance_from_trend": -0.184135, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.575833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.242387, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.014371, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.219751, "excess_performance": -0.345376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184135, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100198, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.242387, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220233, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.340144, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1972, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219751, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.725313, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5767454, "relative_activity": 1.996227, "balance": 0.725313, "dry_up": 1.462713, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095875, "annualized_volatility": 0.429551, "from_high_reference": -0.43039, "from_low_reference": 0.024533 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.749333, "fair_value_reference": 11.575833, "structural_low": 8.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.030801, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.018453, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.288712, "worst_return": -0.205343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.031563, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.064539, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.352657, "worst_return": -0.326585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.196891, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.653382, "worst_return": -0.311082, "sufficient": true }, 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9.689333, 9.806727, 10.275667, 10.674452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.81, "volume": 2810808, "typical_volume": 2494540.75, "trend": 11.180667, "fair_value": 11.736795, "relative_strength": -25.184243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.519985, "energy": 43.10889, "activity_lines": [ 9.706, 9.771455, 10.199048, 10.579441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.89, "volume": 3914096, "typical_volume": 2565444.7, "trend": 11.049667, "fair_value": 11.676987, "relative_strength": -30.993675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.169548, "energy": 51.52539, "activity_lines": [ 9.434667, 9.607273, 10.046714, 10.431656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.93, "volume": 4411792, "typical_volume": 2707917.1, "trend": 10.896667, "fair_value": 11.627115, "relative_strength": -30.949347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.040615, "energy": 53.663588, "activity_lines": [ 9.236667, 9.462727, 9.909143, 10.294903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.77, "volume": 5767454, "typical_volume": 2889176.9, "trend": 10.749333, "fair_value": 11.575833, "relative_strength": -34.014371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.301792, "energy": 62.094317, "activity_lines": [ 9.034667, 9.305091, 9.765048, 10.157699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }