{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cae66c33-84ec-4ab7-947f-ceba5c1ae671", "symbol": "KOM", "name": "Pl\u00e1sticos Compuestos, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 53.015, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.288, "architecture_energy": 79.814, "architecture_maturity": 25.953, "architecture_confidence": 77.48, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.23, "rotation_up": 50.47, "upward_expansion": 82.58, "deceleration": 53.88, "rotation_down": 23.6, "downward_expansion": 25.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.83, 0.828364, 0.803595, 0.794312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.83, "trend_reference": 0.791, "distance_from_trend": 0.049305, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.980288, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.15331, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.320914, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.057325, "excess_performance": -0.067106, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049305, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05118, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.15331, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098727, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193209, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086603, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057325, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.697572, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 3.697572, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015755, "annualized_volatility": 0.190251, "from_high_reference": -0.201923, "from_low_reference": 0.121622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.791, "fair_value_reference": 0.980288, "structural_low": 0.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.019048, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058202, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.011905, "worst_return": -0.019417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.211816, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.047619, "worst_return": -0.047619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.255427, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.047619, "worst_return": -0.047619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.12381, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.621093, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.12381, "worst_return": -0.12381, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-02-04", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.455959, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038095, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009901, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043269, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035176, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.23, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011905, "active": true } ], "chart_path": 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"direction": 37.898858, "energy": 75.825932, "activity_lines": [ 0.834, 0.812182, 0.789738, 0.787409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.83, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3132.95, "trend": 0.794333, "fair_value": 0.983365, "relative_strength": -18.581478, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.773332, "energy": 75.511826, "activity_lines": [ 0.832, 0.819091, 0.794619, 0.789602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.83, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3032.95, "trend": 0.792667, "fair_value": 0.981827, "relative_strength": -18.526402, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.837849, "energy": 68.007529, "activity_lines": [ 0.830667, 0.824545, 0.799262, 0.791903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.83, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2925.45, "trend": 0.791, "fair_value": 0.980288, "relative_strength": -19.320914, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.288387, "energy": 79.813903, "activity_lines": [ 0.83, 0.828364, 0.803595, 0.794312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }