{ "ticker": { "uuid": "caed1ac7-ae8d-4bf6-928b-4a177fd96fb8", "symbol": "PQJL", "name": "PGIM Nasdaq-100 Buffer 12 ETF - July", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.986, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.2, "architecture_energy": 29.188, "architecture_maturity": 63.985, "architecture_confidence": 74.599, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.97, "rotation_up": 26.92, "upward_expansion": 51.62, "deceleration": 82.33, "rotation_down": 43.25, "downward_expansion": 31.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.44354, 30.579829, 30.640157, 30.321266 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 31.03, "trend_reference": 29.91383, "distance_from_trend": 0.037313, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.821618, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.11532, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.259914, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069594, "excess_performance": -0.117859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037313, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02209, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.11532, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014546, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.072599, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018394, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069594, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.774937, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14181, "relative_activity": 0.631545, "balance": 0.774937, "dry_up": 0.91071, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014192, "annualized_volatility": 0.101484, "from_high_reference": -0.006404, "from_low_reference": 0.137113 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.91383, "fair_value_reference": 27.821618, "structural_low": 27.7173, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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"2026-06-26", "close": 31.19, "volume": 13345, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.5864, "volume": 118664, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.005, "volume": 29653, "typical_volume": 20196.55, "trend": 29.752736, "fair_value": 27.69741, "relative_strength": -8.424095, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.243333, "energy": 57.451125, "activity_lines": [ 30.948373, 30.970593, 30.587899, 30.192021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.202, "volume": 28805, "typical_volume": 20983.95, "trend": 29.794503, "fair_value": 27.728331, "relative_strength": -6.728, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.537152, "energy": 35.894237, "activity_lines": [ 30.68528, 30.83284, 30.59931, 30.221006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.8703, "volume": 18106, "typical_volume": 21498.2, "trend": 29.817237, "fair_value": 27.754453, "relative_strength": -6.071747, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.797568, "energy": 28.084749, "activity_lines": [ 30.369153, 30.646105, 30.573674, 30.225896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.1208, "volume": 20706, "typical_volume": 21954.4, "trend": 29.85533, "fair_value": 27.782963, "relative_strength": -5.598675, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.129448, "energy": 24.412623, "activity_lines": [ 30.219173, 30.522638, 30.566979, 30.245481 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.03, "volume": 14181, "typical_volume": 22454.45, "trend": 29.91383, "fair_value": 27.821618, "relative_strength": -7.259914, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.199676, "energy": 29.187834, "activity_lines": [ 30.44354, 30.579829, 30.640157, 30.321266 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }