{ "ticker": { "uuid": "caf2f052-15ba-44f4-b01b-8b07de21b29b", "symbol": "605189", "name": "Wuhu Fuchun Dye and Weave Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 61.719, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.056, "architecture_energy": 13.92, "architecture_maturity": 40.906, "architecture_confidence": 50.284, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.18, "rotation_up": 37.13, "upward_expansion": 23.21, "deceleration": 36.05, "rotation_down": 22.33, "downward_expansion": 52.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.319333, 14.818243, 15.151934, 15.261216 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.75, "trend_reference": 15.372097, "distance_from_trend": 0.024584, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.19459, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291556, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.737953, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.022727, "excess_performance": 0.065931, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024584, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042393, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291556, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212637, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00738, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095246, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022727, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.895071, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119191578, "relative_activity": 1.925755, "balance": 0.895071, "dry_up": 2.087375, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143041, "annualized_volatility": 0.630477, "from_high_reference": -0.237254, "from_low_reference": 0.276337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.372097, "fair_value_reference": 12.19459, "structural_low": 12.34, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.051843, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.133333, "median_excess_return": 0.031901, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.176613, "worst_return": -0.144083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032343, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032893, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.187389, "worst_return": -0.149371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.038629, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067834, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.186006, "worst_return": -0.171844, "sufficient": false }, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -55.936216, "energy": 35.60397, "activity_lines": [ 14.07859, 14.367265, 15.177609, 15.291133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.71, "volume": 148076314, "typical_volume": 45792558.35, "trend": 15.36343, "fair_value": 12.133719, "relative_strength": -1.675401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.701293, "energy": 22.012718, "activity_lines": [ 14.381733, 14.294662, 15.115738, 15.246052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.59, "volume": 111047249, "typical_volume": 50524702.3, "trend": 15.342097, "fair_value": 12.147248, "relative_strength": -3.759658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.143298, "energy": 18.4052, "activity_lines": [ 14.546667, 14.260235, 15.047057, 15.196153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.97, "volume": 138464188, "typical_volume": 56618191.95, "trend": 15.36943, "fair_value": 12.171745, "relative_strength": 4.93068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.979611, "energy": 12.250948, "activity_lines": [ 15.088667, 14.55098, 15.113281, 15.236663 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.75, "volume": 119191578, "typical_volume": 61893440.85, "trend": 15.372097, "fair_value": 12.19459, "relative_strength": 0.737953, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.055869, "energy": 13.919833, "activity_lines": [ 15.319333, 14.818243, 15.151934, 15.261216 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }