{ "ticker": { "uuid": "caf86f06-a3c8-4bcf-a0b7-cd07e2bbcdc6", "symbol": "4513", "name": "Falcon Machine Tools Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 94.013, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.867, "architecture_energy": 15.995, "architecture_maturity": 25.975, "architecture_confidence": 49.498, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.22, "rotation_up": 39.39, "upward_expansion": 40.74, "deceleration": 48.9, "rotation_down": 27.55, "downward_expansion": 12.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.976666, 17.932727, 17.032619, 16.966452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.049999, "trend_reference": 17.293333, "distance_from_trend": -0.014071, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.578481, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.358504, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.337924, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.085791, "excess_performance": -0.527163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014071, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000868, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.358504, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102346, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.333379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159835, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085791, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.923386, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3801830, "relative_activity": 0.796822, "balance": 1.923386, "dry_up": 1.424729, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144597, "annualized_volatility": 0.564732, "from_high_reference": -0.2881, "from_low_reference": 0.226619 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.293333, "fair_value_reference": 26.578481, "structural_low": 13.9, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.097046, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.118567, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.097046, "worst_return": 0.097046, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.371308, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.330668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.371308, "worst_return": 0.371308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.658228, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.637058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.658228, "worst_return": 0.658228, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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16.972581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 7511393, "typical_volume": 4598754.8, "trend": 17.303333, "fair_value": 26.588697, "relative_strength": -31.4775, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.96958, "energy": 42.533395, "activity_lines": [ 18.7, 17.865455, 16.861429, 16.947097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.85, "volume": 3454608, "typical_volume": 4653354.25, "trend": 17.296667, "fair_value": 26.585854, "relative_strength": -28.701428, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.868779, "energy": 39.833424, "activity_lines": [ 18.51, 18.0, 16.984048, 16.982366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.049999, "volume": 3801830, "typical_volume": 4771240.85, "trend": 17.293333, "fair_value": 26.578481, "relative_strength": -33.337924, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.866765, "energy": 15.995258, "activity_lines": [ 17.976666, 17.932727, 17.032619, 16.966452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }