{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "cafad9e9-d67d-4a04-a233-d377c89769b5",
    "symbol": "PEH",
    "name": "Invesco RAFI Emerging Markets Fundamental Value UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 72.214,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 36.621,
    "architecture_energy": 22.447,
    "architecture_maturity": 66.11,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.092,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.11,
        "rotation_up": 23.84,
        "upward_expansion": 55.81,
        "deceleration": 91.08,
        "rotation_down": 29.35,
        "downward_expansion": 19.48
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        11.359333,
        11.442491,
        11.362486,
        11.10564
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 11.482,
    "trend_reference": 10.792571,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.06388,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 8.513885,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348621,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.259135,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.116368,
    "excess_performance": -0.054523,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06388,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.062156,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.348621,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.046953,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.032591,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.084,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.116368,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.960318,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5390,
      "relative_activity": 0.436024,
      "balance": 0.960318,
      "dry_up": 1.250394,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.035733,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.196694,
      "from_high_reference": -0.048243,
      "from_low_reference": 0.310967
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 10.792571,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.513885,
      "structural_low": 9.474,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.007711,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001241,
        "regime_survival": 0.533333,
        "best_return": 0.099837,
        "worst_return": -0.084567,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.067914,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000943,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.200999,
        "worst_return": -0.017098,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.072085,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000104,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.225372,
        "worst_return": 0.029754,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.086513,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.095265,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.152213,
        "worst_return": -0.058989,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.048139,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.025799,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.029965,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.018292,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.080495,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.008259,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.015385,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.080101,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.035538,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.033834,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.099837,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.052197,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.008254,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 1140.25,
        "trend": 6.545605,
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        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "fair_value": 8.397567,
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        "energy": 55.440287,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 23548,
        "typical_volume": 13355.0,
        "trend": 10.629969,
        "fair_value": 8.426734,
        "relative_strength": -2.78354,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.560071,
        "energy": 34.271432,
        "activity_lines": [
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          11.2423,
          10.973293
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 11.388,
        "volume": 18496,
        "typical_volume": 12254.7,
        "trend": 10.691901,
        "fair_value": 8.455571,
        "relative_strength": -0.477529,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.785911,
        "energy": 26.91911,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.3944,
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          11.022199
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 11.244,
        "volume": 14394,
        "typical_volume": 12581.65,
        "trend": 10.740753,
        "fair_value": 8.48322,
        "relative_strength": -2.432499,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.84198,
        "energy": 21.508621,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.3272,
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          11.31762,
          11.057818
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 11.482,
        "volume": 5390,
        "typical_volume": 12361.7,
        "trend": 10.792571,
        "fair_value": 8.513885,
        "relative_strength": -3.259135,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.621251,
        "energy": 22.447409,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}