{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cafb49e7-4356-4766-b5af-21e219597947", "symbol": "SERV", "name": "Serve Robotics Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.487, "architecture_energy": 75.758, "architecture_maturity": 66.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.942, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.7, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 17.24, "deceleration": 39.91, "rotation_down": 72.53, "downward_expansion": 92.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.005, 5.486364, 6.613286, 7.320194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.085, "trend_reference": 8.437667, "distance_from_trend": -0.397345, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.42937, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.460727, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.49698, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.523653, "excess_performance": -0.711107, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.397345, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169671, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.460727, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.360194, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.55497, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217397, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.523653, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.659385, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29054920, "relative_activity": 1.419846, "balance": 0.659385, "dry_up": 0.898009, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230744, "annualized_volatility": 0.547111, "from_high_reference": -0.7272, "from_low_reference": 0.177083 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.437667, "fair_value_reference": 9.42937, "structural_low": 4.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.104873, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.100491, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.112426, "worst_return": -0.357219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.179025, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.354784, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.179025, "worst_return": -0.179025, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"direction": -80.93598, "energy": 85.335119, "activity_lines": [ 5.804667, 6.512909, 7.44719, 8.110398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.81, "volume": 13135306, "typical_volume": 21133089.25, "trend": 8.9935, "fair_value": 9.50132, "relative_strength": -56.699476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.317857, "energy": 85.751984, "activity_lines": [ 5.386667, 6.090545, 7.139857, 7.829032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.78, "volume": 17023752, "typical_volume": 20150480.5, "trend": 8.7585, "fair_value": 9.463849, "relative_strength": -56.629774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.014797, "energy": 84.581464, "activity_lines": [ 5.104, 5.725091, 6.851714, 7.557194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.085, "volume": 29054920, "typical_volume": 20463436.5, "trend": 8.437667, "fair_value": 9.42937, "relative_strength": -55.49698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.48746, "energy": 75.757742, "activity_lines": [ 5.005, 5.486364, 6.613286, 7.320194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }