{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cafbb6fb-5a06-4be9-a502-e71ded28449f", "symbol": "JKS", "name": "JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.87, "architecture_energy": 62.854, "architecture_maturity": 68.716, "architecture_confidence": 94.718, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 27.41, "upward_expansion": 11.72, "deceleration": 55.6, "rotation_down": 57.95, "downward_expansion": 87.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.876, 14.140214, 15.099907, 16.389817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.74, "trend_reference": 18.295448, "distance_from_trend": -0.194335, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.865885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.258025, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.896299, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.357734, "excess_performance": -0.531981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.194335, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130881, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.258025, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079889, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.398963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12709, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.357734, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.725764, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 497, "relative_activity": 1.531115, "balance": 0.725764, "dry_up": 1.373999, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079368, "annualized_volatility": 0.442223, "from_high_reference": -0.446904, "from_low_reference": 0.16063 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.295448, "fair_value_reference": 19.865885, "structural_low": 12.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.00646, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.029531, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.347716, "worst_return": -0.235849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.02485, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.084803, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.520961, "worst_return": -0.258883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.047859, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033568, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.611765, "worst_return": -0.295558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.146793, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.305204, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084577, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057482, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008386, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 367.6, "trend": 19.587115, "fair_value": 20.2562, "relative_strength": -44.296274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.461641, "energy": 87.372427, "activity_lines": [ 14.438353, 15.160721, 16.380925, 17.751782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.22, "volume": 677, "typical_volume": 380.05, "trend": 19.272781, "fair_value": 20.152244, "relative_strength": -41.301438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.538828, "energy": 86.389447, "activity_lines": [ 14.253333, 14.88042, 16.045623, 17.405517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.26, "volume": 356, "typical_volume": 311.45, "trend": 18.958115, "fair_value": 20.040832, "relative_strength": -45.404735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.92831, "energy": 89.4557, "activity_lines": [ 13.850667, 14.484438, 15.65213, 17.017595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.08, "volume": 254, "typical_volume": 302.75, "trend": 18.592448, "fair_value": 19.941795, "relative_strength": -45.562732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.320337, "energy": 86.085254, "activity_lines": [ 13.537333, 14.135073, 15.275019, 16.638362 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.74, "volume": 497, "typical_volume": 324.6, "trend": 18.295448, "fair_value": 19.865885, "relative_strength": -39.896299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.86958, "energy": 62.853828, "activity_lines": [ 13.876, 14.140214, 15.099907, 16.389817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }