{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cafe82eb-6ed6-4459-bf07-1cd39a16a907", "symbol": "600579", "name": "KraussMaffei Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.24, "architecture_energy": 35.409, "architecture_maturity": 46.052, "architecture_confidence": 86.45, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.88, "rotation_up": 20.67, "upward_expansion": 8.02, "deceleration": 46.86, "rotation_down": 54.56, "downward_expansion": 74.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.112, 7.238727, 7.27581, 7.524925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.28, "trend_reference": 7.907, "distance_from_trend": -0.079297, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.49391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028545, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.40715, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.16895, "excess_performance": -0.125746, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079297, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060219, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028545, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075776, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114071, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040187, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.16895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.895439, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29137135, "relative_activity": 0.920847, "balance": 0.895439, "dry_up": 1.229263, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09235, "annualized_volatility": 0.360141, "from_high_reference": -0.266868, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.907, "fair_value_reference": 7.49391, "structural_low": 6.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.000334, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007986, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.449304, "worst_return": -0.155811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.15047, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.06599, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.320076, "worst_return": -0.140065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.12069, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.093281, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.67803, "worst_return": -0.11303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195962, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109306, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055925, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052897, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103792, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.709584, "energy": 27.390997, "activity_lines": [ 7.452667, 7.286545, 7.414048, 7.70243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.81, "volume": 38417906, "typical_volume": 32588676.1, "trend": 7.98, "fair_value": 7.497051, "relative_strength": -15.512788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.070378, "energy": 29.31936, "activity_lines": [ 7.214667, 7.217273, 7.332952, 7.623699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.11, "volume": 33824381, "typical_volume": 31780690.15, "trend": 7.941, "fair_value": 7.493397, "relative_strength": -11.828741, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.087552, "energy": 33.363356, "activity_lines": [ 7.114, 7.212727, 7.292048, 7.56757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.28, "volume": 29137135, "typical_volume": 31641657.85, "trend": 7.907, "fair_value": 7.49391, "relative_strength": -11.40715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.240478, "energy": 35.409378, "activity_lines": [ 7.112, 7.238727, 7.27581, 7.524925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }