{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb072f81-3f59-45ea-9e4a-1d4fbbb798db", "symbol": "MSBI", "name": "Hamashbir 365 Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.853, "architecture_energy": 66.95, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.83, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.87, "rotation_up": 29.92, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.81, "rotation_down": 52.85, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.5504, 0.555509, 0.637295, 0.732533 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.54, "trend_reference": 0.8578, "distance_from_trend": -0.370483, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.033675, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.477592, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.864988, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.535684, "excess_performance": -0.564584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.370483, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178431, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.477592, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271871, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.50865, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060841, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.535684, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.428244, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67584, "relative_activity": 0.830246, "balance": 0.428244, "dry_up": 0.88975, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093875, "annualized_volatility": 0.294533, "from_high_reference": -0.559543, "from_low_reference": 0.065089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.8578, "fair_value_reference": 1.033675, "structural_low": 0.507, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.017273, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.000371, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.205956, "worst_return": -0.249354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.070625, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.053253, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.255504, "worst_return": -0.398037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.048511, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.161041, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.15253, "worst_return": -0.506261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053244, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126972, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050814, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092593, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.450192, "energy": 87.254004, "activity_lines": [ 0.548467, 0.588673, 0.703014, 0.798583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.552, "volume": 6588, "typical_volume": 83015.7, "trend": 0.893867, "fair_value": 1.036513, "relative_strength": -52.545821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.756948, "energy": 67.204035, "activity_lines": [ 0.5482, 0.573273, 0.678552, 0.775447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.565, "volume": 55532, "typical_volume": 82505.95, "trend": 0.8763, "fair_value": 1.035259, "relative_strength": -49.301146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.068806, "energy": 65.886713, "activity_lines": [ 0.5542, 0.564764, 0.657938, 0.75423 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.54, "volume": 67584, "typical_volume": 81402.35, "trend": 0.8578, "fair_value": 1.033675, "relative_strength": -50.864988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.853229, "energy": 66.950044, "activity_lines": [ 0.5504, 0.555509, 0.637295, 0.732533 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }