{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb13b538-41b5-4ea2-a8cb-cfedf672b122", "symbol": "DAX2S", "name": "Amundi ShortDAX Daily (-2x) Inverse UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.165, "architecture_energy": 72.324, "architecture_maturity": 31.253, "architecture_confidence": 95.748, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 18.6, "upward_expansion": 15.04, "deceleration": 39.13, "rotation_down": 64.67, "downward_expansion": 88.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.478667, 0.487527, 0.501731, 0.515726 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.452, "trend_reference": 0.525983, "distance_from_trend": -0.140657, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.774854, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.416665, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.187594, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138063, "excess_performance": -0.308954, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140657, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.416665, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058753, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.281876, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128683, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138063, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.482978, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 384447, "relative_activity": 0.237339, "balance": 0.482978, "dry_up": 0.265359, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056943, "annualized_volatility": 0.366881, "from_high_reference": -0.317839, "from_low_reference": 0.004221 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.525983, "fair_value_reference": 0.774854, "structural_low": 0.4501, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.000938, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00329, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.136547, "worst_return": -0.203701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.05057, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.058574, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.115482, "worst_return": -0.25761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.104117, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.175171, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.34082, "worst_return": -0.290044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.526046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4981, "volume": 527555, "typical_volume": 1964841.85, "trend": 0.52943, "fair_value": 0.78386, "relative_strength": -19.23406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.1576, "energy": 52.217901, "activity_lines": [ 0.498233, 0.500567, 0.514472, 0.523937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4778, "volume": 461771, "typical_volume": 1750829.75, "trend": 0.52764, "fair_value": 0.779504, "relative_strength": -22.423406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.697994, "energy": 47.345185, "activity_lines": [ 0.491513, 0.496151, 0.509087, 0.520606 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.452, "volume": 384447, "typical_volume": 1619823.65, "trend": 0.525983, "fair_value": 0.774854, "relative_strength": -28.187594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.165197, "energy": 72.323803, "activity_lines": [ 0.478667, 0.487527, 0.501731, 0.515726 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }