{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb16a6df-a710-4c03-b59e-6c25506875b0", "symbol": "B1IL34", "name": "Bilibili Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.486, "architecture_energy": 35.082, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.28, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.05, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 23.66, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 32.16, "downward_expansion": 62.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.678666, 18.306364, 18.765095, 20.434473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.08, "trend_reference": 23.514667, "distance_from_trend": -0.188592, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.327821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061385, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.694217, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.415441, "excess_performance": -0.358393, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188592, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124677, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061385, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13136, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030674, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.415441, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.22241, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 920, "relative_activity": 0.288456, "balance": 1.22241, "dry_up": 1.527168, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070231, "annualized_volatility": 0.395629, "from_high_reference": -0.497895, "from_low_reference": 0.155663 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.514667, "fair_value_reference": 20.327821, "structural_low": 16.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.013741, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.016305, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.570697, "worst_return": -0.330588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.008344, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013582, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.495248, "worst_return": -0.23246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.250637, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.300419, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.149049, "worst_return": -0.607794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.248924, "energy": 63.791597, "activity_lines": [ 17.738667, 17.868182, 19.595714, 21.927376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.5, "volume": 10126, "typical_volume": 3387.4, "trend": 24.552, "fair_value": 20.296795, "relative_strength": -33.305378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.571542, "energy": 57.290762, "activity_lines": [ 17.978, 17.910546, 19.314095, 21.517935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.58, "volume": 256, "typical_volume": 3002.95, "trend": 24.216, "fair_value": 20.296795, "relative_strength": -36.038108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.888008, "energy": 57.432926, "activity_lines": [ 17.896, 17.841273, 18.993333, 21.068129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.219999, "volume": 8181, "typical_volume": 3210.05, "trend": 23.905667, "fair_value": 20.305705, "relative_strength": -31.000895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.335869, "energy": 43.985089, "activity_lines": [ 18.383333, 18.103273, 18.868286, 20.745806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.08, "volume": 920, "typical_volume": 3189.4, "trend": 23.514667, "fair_value": 20.327821, "relative_strength": -28.694217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.485993, "energy": 35.081706, "activity_lines": [ 18.678666, 18.306364, 18.765095, 20.434473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }