{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb1b4211-1f99-4220-ab33-a40cf44e0e89", "symbol": "SJPN", "name": "Leverage Shares -3x Short Japan ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.345, "architecture_energy": 54.849, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.408, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.99, "rotation_up": 28.52, "upward_expansion": 8.16, "deceleration": 60.06, "rotation_down": 51.89, "downward_expansion": 81.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.625733, 0.635655, 0.670629, 0.723988 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.554, "trend_reference": 0.789983, "distance_from_trend": -0.298719, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.613484, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.788022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.466702, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.354312, "excess_performance": -0.405548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.298719, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19259, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.788022, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023604, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.504667, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007672, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.354312, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.083971, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6798, "relative_activity": 0.19738, "balance": 0.083971, "dry_up": 1.837313, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118578, "annualized_volatility": 0.699056, "from_high_reference": -0.674879, "from_low_reference": 0.447303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.789983, "fair_value_reference": 2.613484, "structural_low": 0.554, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.089128, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.098714, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.407534, "worst_return": -0.270729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.165775, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.228879, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.174299, "worst_return": -0.385047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.244539, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.314739, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.090414, "worst_return": -0.488232, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 0.823217, "fair_value": 2.669239, "relative_strength": -42.248736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.295514, "energy": 45.254586, "activity_lines": [ 0.659067, 0.657327, 0.700764, 0.751487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.649, "volume": 154675, "typical_volume": 36794.0, "trend": 0.806017, "fair_value": 2.64236, "relative_strength": -43.078321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.68662, "energy": 39.601569, "activity_lines": [ 0.657933, 0.654545, 0.689319, 0.740247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.554, "volume": 6798, "typical_volume": 34441.2, "trend": 0.789983, "fair_value": 2.613484, "relative_strength": -50.466702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.345198, "energy": 54.848931, "activity_lines": [ 0.625733, 0.635655, 0.670629, 0.723988 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }