{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb22429b-60d9-467c-8d38-83fbcd681254", "symbol": "1111", "name": "Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.597, "architecture_energy": 90.3, "architecture_maturity": 71.753, "architecture_confidence": 81.304, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.03, "rotation_up": 8.2, "upward_expansion": 21.88, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 85.13, "downward_expansion": 99.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 122.146666, 126.625454, 131.081244, 133.546135 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 120.5, "trend_reference": 137.22928, "distance_from_trend": -0.121908, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 186.97301, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.355522, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.903919, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.212651, "excess_performance": -0.180822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121908, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072209, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.355522, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07415, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04299, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.212651, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.719597, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2665154, "relative_activity": 2.088992, "balance": 0.719597, "dry_up": 1.177132, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043345, "annualized_volatility": 0.218732, "from_high_reference": -0.430546, "from_low_reference": 0.034335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 137.22928, "fair_value_reference": 186.97301, "structural_low": 116.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.022284, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.01852, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.232998, "worst_return": -0.102251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.051093, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.032354, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.125854, "worst_return": -0.123218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.057597, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.089602, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.012871, "worst_return": -0.124464, "sufficient": false }, { 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"direction": -79.579954, "energy": 73.063455, "activity_lines": [ 130.986667, 133.412727, 135.296003, 136.968919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 123.599998, "volume": 838971, "typical_volume": 1190501.25, "trend": 138.586349, "fair_value": 187.886258, "relative_strength": -18.415952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.832584, "energy": 81.600323, "activity_lines": [ 127.973333, 131.383636, 134.073968, 135.959477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 118.599998, "volume": 1296718, "typical_volume": 1168212.35, "trend": 137.920437, "fair_value": 187.427228, "relative_strength": -19.756876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.544099, "energy": 92.061004, "activity_lines": [ 124.233333, 128.659999, 132.441439, 134.670035 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 120.5, "volume": 2665154, "typical_volume": 1275808.9, "trend": 137.22928, "fair_value": 186.97301, "relative_strength": -19.903919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.597423, "energy": 90.299817, "activity_lines": [ 122.146666, 126.625454, 131.081244, 133.546135 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }