{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb25afc7-579b-47d7-b2ae-4bbaa140b287", "symbol": "UAL", "name": "United Airlines Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.007, "architecture_energy": 33.745, "architecture_maturity": 74.492, "architecture_confidence": 88.19, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.77, "rotation_up": 37.03, "upward_expansion": 67.17, "deceleration": 85.34, "rotation_down": 26.95, "downward_expansion": 17.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 2144.466667, 2162.072727, 2038.080808, 1953.030128 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2220.0, "trend_reference": 1883.359001, "distance_from_trend": 0.178745, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1416.44827, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.5673, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.798641, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.174603, "excess_performance": 0.22927, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.178745, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037468, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.5673, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.228855, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.147986, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.245614, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.174603, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.720832, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2106, "relative_activity": 0.858716, "balance": 5.720832, "dry_up": 0.848726, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07699, "annualized_volatility": 0.525298, "from_high_reference": -0.075, "from_low_reference": 0.441558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1883.359001, "fair_value_reference": 1416.44827, "structural_low": 1540.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.006871, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.011831, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.497667, "worst_return": -0.216518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.098451, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.106611, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.701161, "worst_return": -0.407446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.107972, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.107805, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.68183, "worst_return": -0.225806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1960.688236, 1902.471655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2070.0, "volume": 2626, "typical_volume": 2349.8, "trend": 1874.325667, "fair_value": 1400.087373, "relative_strength": 8.512049, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.942244, "energy": 51.070074, "activity_lines": [ 2160.2, 2133.261634, 1982.376236, 1915.074301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2121.0, "volume": 2153, "typical_volume": 2389.8, "trend": 1878.359001, "fair_value": 1407.973911, "relative_strength": 10.003166, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.957397, "energy": 35.848011, "activity_lines": [ 2126.533333, 2142.130908, 2006.849951, 1930.988774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2220.0, "volume": 2106, "typical_volume": 2452.5, "trend": 1883.359001, "fair_value": 1416.44827, "relative_strength": 14.798641, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.007476, "energy": 33.744949, "activity_lines": [ 2144.466667, 2162.072727, 2038.080808, 1953.030128 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }