{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb25fb4e-b51a-4f29-97d9-c1a877132e94", "symbol": "LDO", "name": "Leonardo S.p.a.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 10.906, "architecture_energy": 18.441, "architecture_maturity": 15.518, "architecture_confidence": 57.517, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.66, "rotation_up": 41.21, "upward_expansion": 28.41, "deceleration": 42.49, "rotation_down": 17.45, "downward_expansion": 48.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.648001, 53.025182, 52.648758, 53.673204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 58.380001, "trend_reference": 54.884603, "distance_from_trend": 0.063686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.173112, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.659791, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.043765, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.103592, "excess_performance": -0.070655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063686, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014763, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.659791, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001784, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041023, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103592, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.283987, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.283987, "dry_up": 0.044655, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068056, "annualized_volatility": 0.495162, "from_high_reference": -0.115722, "from_low_reference": 0.445049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.884603, "fair_value_reference": 35.173112, "structural_low": 44.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.00286, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.031125, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.390162, "worst_return": -0.09727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.106952, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.059309, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.467155, "worst_return": -0.104743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.29581, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.269307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.386407, "worst_return": -0.06405, "sufficient": true 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.903447, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.166265, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130357, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.158561, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045686, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.109562, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091002, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.187228, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.545666, "volume": 407, "typical_volume": 291.3, "trend": 10.619799, "fair_value": 7.606939, "relative_strength": 36.317475, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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54.727455 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 46.040001, "volume": 6746, "typical_volume": 3105.6, "trend": 54.371603, "fair_value": 33.566465, "relative_strength": -28.20208, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.869077, "energy": 56.323674, "activity_lines": [ 50.168445, 50.87903, 53.245893, 54.18819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 52.630001, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 3095.75, "trend": 54.548936, "fair_value": 33.838624, "relative_strength": -19.551695, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.785662, "energy": 39.554502, "activity_lines": [ 50.664332, 51.115064, 53.017569, 54.075829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 51.5, "volume": 1066, "typical_volume": 3078.2, "trend": 54.655936, "fair_value": 34.098, "relative_strength": -19.907544, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.394066, "energy": 39.286999, "activity_lines": [ 50.866077, 51.144977, 52.688816, 53.879123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.720001, "volume": 96, "typical_volume": 3039.4, "trend": 54.700603, "fair_value": 34.350687, "relative_strength": -19.166864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.437986, "energy": 37.97466, "activity_lines": [ 50.774, 51.046663, 52.321968, 53.625192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.080002, "volume": 303, "typical_volume": 3029.15, "trend": 54.78327, "fair_value": 34.610559, "relative_strength": -17.741482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.396187, "energy": 19.717946, "activity_lines": [ 51.272001, 51.230579, 52.113025, 53.456121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.66, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 2268.1, "trend": 54.891936, "fair_value": 34.881774, "relative_strength": -13.418525, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.280483, "energy": 14.112529, "activity_lines": [ 52.627334, 51.816122, 52.18151, 53.448168 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.380001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2256.2, "trend": 54.884603, "fair_value": 35.173112, "relative_strength": -10.043765, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.906493, "energy": 18.441038, "activity_lines": [ 54.648001, 53.025182, 52.648758, 53.673204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }