{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb2d046d-3236-4e8e-ac42-fc920f247f63", "symbol": "ZPA6", "name": "Amundi S&P 500 Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.937, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.805, "architecture_energy": 66.298, "architecture_maturity": 46.296, "architecture_confidence": 81.707, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.67, "rotation_up": 56.36, "upward_expansion": 81.69, "deceleration": 61.96, "rotation_down": 26.91, "downward_expansion": 10.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.993334, 48.681091, 48.147762, 47.179731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 50.490002, "trend_reference": 46.151333, "distance_from_trend": 0.09401, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.866331, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.299068, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.917284, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130289, "excess_performance": 0.065649, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09401, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026383, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.299068, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019658, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029173, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053172, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130289, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.252438, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13110, "relative_activity": 0.683327, "balance": 1.252438, "dry_up": 0.792993, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018328, "annualized_volatility": 0.141461, "from_high_reference": -0.000396, "from_low_reference": 0.232064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.151333, "fair_value_reference": 38.866331, "structural_low": 40.98, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.011202, "positive_rate": 0.741935, "directional_follow_through": 0.741935, "median_excess_return": 0.004727, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.069132, "worst_return": -0.091775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.044101, "positive_rate": 0.916667, "directional_follow_through": 0.916667, "median_excess_return": 0.022699, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.137312, "worst_return": -0.057579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.117764, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.056001, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.183611, "worst_return": 0.018714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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47.472727, 45.859286, 45.479 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 48.040001, "volume": 14900, "typical_volume": 21374.4, "trend": 45.228167, "fair_value": 37.849337, "relative_strength": 6.30544, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.028715, "energy": 81.76304, "activity_lines": [ 48.360333, 47.766909, 46.136738, 45.667807 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 48.325001, "volume": 5327, "typical_volume": 21372.9, "trend": 45.386, "fair_value": 37.979805, "relative_strength": 5.179406, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.185341, "energy": 73.134172, "activity_lines": [ 48.356667, 48.006364, 46.427881, 45.867602 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 47.744999, "volume": 3384, "typical_volume": 21299.4, "trend": 45.474833, "fair_value": 38.102832, "relative_strength": 4.991313, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.419319, "energy": 55.910542, "activity_lines": [ 48.126333, 48.053091, 46.649048, 46.019796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 48.639999, "volume": 520, "typical_volume": 21090.75, "trend": 45.5825, "fair_value": 38.233736, "relative_strength": 2.208964, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.101009, "energy": 57.342523, "activity_lines": [ 48.237333, 48.227363, 46.940809, 46.224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.665001, "volume": 14653, "typical_volume": 20796.1, "trend": 45.7035, "fair_value": 38.359798, "relative_strength": 4.909328, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.2319, "energy": 58.466837, "activity_lines": [ 48.387333, 48.350909, 47.213738, 46.422871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.435001, "volume": 27980, "typical_volume": 21906.95, "trend": 45.813333, "fair_value": 38.483407, "relative_strength": 5.1466, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.633651, "energy": 59.758836, "activity_lines": [ 48.438, 48.382273, 47.444405, 46.599097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.924999, "volume": 9628, "typical_volume": 21135.4, "trend": 45.891167, "fair_value": 38.601555, "relative_strength": 2.75157, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.525846, "energy": 50.271335, "activity_lines": [ 48.292333, 48.305182, 47.6075, 46.735333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.285, "volume": 10138, "typical_volume": 20349.8, "trend": 45.995667, "fair_value": 38.72636, "relative_strength": 1.250843, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.430003, "energy": 47.562568, "activity_lines": [ 48.293333, 48.291727, 47.785333, 46.889774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.490002, "volume": 13110, "typical_volume": 19185.55, "trend": 46.151333, "fair_value": 38.866331, "relative_strength": 2.917284, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.805194, "energy": 66.298158, "activity_lines": [ 48.993334, 48.681091, 48.147762, 47.179731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }