{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb2fb111-6d5e-4647-acb0-030efd35a1c9", "symbol": "RWM", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST SHORT RUSSELL2000 (POST REV SPLIT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.159, "architecture_energy": 42.903, "architecture_maturity": 77.735, "architecture_confidence": 84.696, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.73, "rotation_up": 27.07, "upward_expansion": 17.71, "deceleration": 46.0, "rotation_down": 40.61, "downward_expansion": 65.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.573333, 13.568356, 13.793653, 14.205681 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.3, "trend_reference": 14.663415, "distance_from_trend": -0.092981, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.951322, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.259107, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.582047, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.124368, "excess_performance": -0.249993, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092981, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055643, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.259107, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018918, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23582, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017952, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124368, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.300501, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98713020, "relative_activity": 1.048186, "balance": 1.300501, "dry_up": 1.299008, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036254, "annualized_volatility": 0.1647, "from_high_reference": -0.267523, "from_low_reference": 0.007958 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.663415, "fair_value_reference": 17.951322, "structural_low": 13.195, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.001562, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.013825, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.121212, "worst_return": -0.121036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.010398, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.045611, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.193631, "worst_return": -0.085357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.04513, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.152103, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.062713, "worst_return": -0.161231, 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-59.382979, "energy": 48.795734, "activity_lines": [ 13.606667, 13.619829, 13.962268, 14.365651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.77, "volume": 139516146, "typical_volume": 96433908.65, "trend": 14.735015, "fair_value": 17.993649, "relative_strength": -18.902741, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.943371, "energy": 38.056391, "activity_lines": [ 13.68, 13.634506, 13.894141, 14.298263 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.3, "volume": 98713020, "typical_volume": 94175121.7, "trend": 14.663415, "fair_value": 17.951322, "relative_strength": -23.582047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.158854, "energy": 42.903252, "activity_lines": [ 13.573333, 13.568356, 13.793653, 14.205681 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }