{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb303db9-5037-40a7-bb0d-8d579223b758", "symbol": "CEN", "name": "Contact Energy Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 54.352, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.518, "architecture_energy": 37.992, "architecture_maturity": 8.343, "architecture_confidence": 63.363, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.18, "rotation_up": 20.33, "upward_expansion": 14.13, "deceleration": 48.1, "rotation_down": 59.89, "downward_expansion": 55.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.166, 9.242182, 9.364143, 9.367726 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.08, "trend_reference": 9.353971, "distance_from_trend": -0.029289, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.422105, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.078115, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.210694, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.042414, "excess_performance": -0.070687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029289, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001723, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.078115, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124534, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140198, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042414, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.475229, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3764786, "relative_activity": 0.456464, "balance": 0.475229, "dry_up": 0.737234, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035242, "annualized_volatility": 0.143174, "from_high_reference": -0.091091, "from_low_reference": 0.062726 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.353971, "fair_value_reference": 8.422105, "structural_low": 8.9, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout 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26.238162, "activity_lines": [ 9.258667, 9.368364, 9.429476, 9.402043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.35, "volume": 6835835, "typical_volume": 8437027.55, "trend": 9.355223, "fair_value": 8.399806, "relative_strength": -2.155685, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.557033, "energy": 25.619415, "activity_lines": [ 9.267333, 9.350727, 9.423905, 9.401971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.1, "volume": 7538743, "typical_volume": 8531361.95, "trend": 9.355585, "fair_value": 8.411273, "relative_strength": -4.205949, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.963148, "energy": 36.111905, "activity_lines": [ 9.215333, 9.296, 9.394762, 9.385505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.08, "volume": 3764786, "typical_volume": 8247712.2, "trend": 9.353971, "fair_value": 8.422105, "relative_strength": -5.210694, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.518389, "energy": 37.99179, "activity_lines": [ 9.166, 9.242182, 9.364143, 9.367726 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }