{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb39c202-024f-4275-85c0-41072ad6a27c", "symbol": "AGIIL", "name": "AGI Infra Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.906, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.87, "architecture_energy": 61.65, "architecture_maturity": 8.169, "architecture_confidence": 73.507, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.51, "rotation_up": 14.19, "upward_expansion": 27.82, "deceleration": 49.45, "rotation_down": 73.47, "downward_expansion": 57.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 314.586672, 332.149093, 350.058096, 344.198926 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 302.950012, "trend_reference": 328.265, "distance_from_trend": -0.077118, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 223.163452, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.357525, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.494046, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.227015, "excess_performance": 0.270724, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077118, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084582, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.357525, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.452426, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01494, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.465973, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.227015, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.366359, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5156972, "relative_activity": 0.495135, "balance": 0.366359, "dry_up": 0.988178, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095205, "annualized_volatility": 0.513946, "from_high_reference": -0.302601, "from_low_reference": 0.429009 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 328.265, "fair_value_reference": 223.163452, "structural_low": 230.649994, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.195496, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.217718, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169173, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-19", "close": 87.665794, "volume": 64280, "typical_volume": null, 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"trend": 328.265, "fair_value": 223.163452, "relative_strength": 1.494046, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.870445, "energy": 61.650056, "activity_lines": [ 314.586672, 332.149093, 350.058096, 344.198926 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }