{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb3c58f1-6b31-4484-98f0-b15521bc3498", "symbol": "SMN", "name": "PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MATERIALS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.072, "architecture_energy": 26.293, "architecture_maturity": 77.562, "architecture_confidence": 82.457, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.84, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 10.73, "deceleration": 49.02, "rotation_down": 41.94, "downward_expansion": 68.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.800867, 19.830833, 19.967491, 20.173238 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.729, "trend_reference": 20.429193, "distance_from_trend": -0.083224, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.143907, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310011, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.215899, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.066425, "excess_performance": -0.19205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083224, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310011, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016537, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.282159, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013185, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066425, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.105143, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11331, "relative_activity": 0.212067, "balance": 2.105143, "dry_up": 0.281802, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069399, "annualized_volatility": 0.370247, "from_high_reference": -0.384497, "from_low_reference": 0.022957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.429193, "fair_value_reference": 27.143907, 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21.089276, "fair_value": 27.419799, "relative_strength": -23.740971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.777633, "energy": 32.603369, "activity_lines": [ 19.73457, 19.920595, 20.163497, 20.398642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.5375, "volume": 11111, "typical_volume": 67816.4, "trend": 20.900266, "fair_value": 27.354728, "relative_strength": -20.424092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.621692, "energy": 16.804306, "activity_lines": [ 20.033585, 20.003979, 20.171642, 20.363044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.9533, "volume": 17503, "typical_volume": 64522.3, "trend": 20.724764, "fair_value": 27.29289, "relative_strength": -21.671204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.609724, "energy": 15.643195, "activity_lines": [ 20.05918, 19.970019, 20.115709, 20.301949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.57, "volume": 20283, "typical_volume": 58855.0, "trend": 20.569263, "fair_value": 27.226678, "relative_strength": -19.278185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.264407, "energy": 12.648394, "activity_lines": [ 20.267887, 20.064634, 20.125413, 20.291964 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.729, "volume": 11331, "typical_volume": 53431.15, "trend": 20.429193, "fair_value": 27.143907, "relative_strength": -28.215899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.071896, "energy": 26.293424, "activity_lines": [ 19.800867, 19.830833, 19.967491, 20.173238 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }