{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb3dedd2-afeb-41c8-9d7a-44190f994745", "symbol": "9605", "name": "Neft Alsharq Company for Chemic", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.937, "architecture_energy": 26.944, "architecture_maturity": 41.021, "architecture_confidence": 48.26, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.06, "rotation_up": 42.85, "upward_expansion": 69.31, "deceleration": 70.9, "rotation_down": 20.93, "downward_expansion": 7.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.846667, 2.842727, 2.760905, 2.729484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.86, "trend_reference": 2.716667, "distance_from_trend": 0.052761, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.684324, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.223738, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.992079, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028777, "excess_performance": 0.060606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052761, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023133, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.223738, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080481, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029921, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167188, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028777, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.167326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 191862, "relative_activity": 4.338688, "balance": 1.167326, "dry_up": 2.413017, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079613, "annualized_volatility": 0.3443, "from_high_reference": -0.339492, "from_low_reference": 0.191667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.716667, "fair_value_reference": 3.684324, "structural_low": 2.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.010135, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012588, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.010135, "worst_return": -0.010135, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033784, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-28", "close": 3.73, "volume": 5498961, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ 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rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.071939, "energy": 43.809277, "activity_lines": [ 2.818667, 2.775091, 2.709095, 2.699505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.81, "volume": 108687, "typical_volume": 32848.8, "trend": 2.711, "fair_value": 3.698807, "relative_strength": -5.621376, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.217203, "energy": 21.500245, "activity_lines": [ 2.814667, 2.793091, 2.722, 2.705849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.93, "volume": 70380, "typical_volume": 35843.5, "trend": 2.712667, "fair_value": 3.691818, "relative_strength": 1.070058, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.2911, "energy": 31.787393, "activity_lines": [ 2.843333, 2.829091, 2.745381, 2.719978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.86, "volume": 191862, "typical_volume": 44221.2, "trend": 2.716667, "fair_value": 3.684324, "relative_strength": -2.992079, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.937146, "energy": 26.943892, "activity_lines": [ 2.846667, 2.842727, 2.760905, 2.729484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }