{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb3e6d1f-82c3-413e-a999-78f333b5cd6b", "symbol": "KSM-F129", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4A) MDAX Currency Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.494, "architecture_energy": 63.721, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.934, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.03, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 52.73, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.12, 28.051818, 605.519286, 1114.148925 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.39, "trend_reference": 1718.074, "distance_from_trend": -0.983476, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2302.924487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987672, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.814214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989665, "excess_performance": -1.018565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983476, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.335302, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987672, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.12026, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988142, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.777973, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989665, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.264411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16896, "relative_activity": 0.585612, "balance": 1.264411, "dry_up": 1.218882, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.845314, "annualized_volatility": 6.306712, "from_high_reference": -0.990004, "from_low_reference": 0.031613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1718.074, "fair_value_reference": 2302.924487, "structural_low": 27.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.00266, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.032789, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.137117, "worst_return": -0.109605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021978, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.073308, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.263183, "worst_return": -0.187695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016129, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.180599, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.063297, "worst_return": -0.98869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 27.86, "volume": 52428, "typical_volume": 30620.95, "trend": 1899.284333, "fair_value": 2334.785449, "relative_strength": -98.925229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.506696, "energy": 68.644512, "activity_lines": [ 27.794667, 77.696545, 867.669571, 1349.864323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.3, "volume": 19252, "typical_volume": 29892.75, "trend": 1810.994333, "fair_value": 2318.787372, "relative_strength": -98.848407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.037221, "energy": 67.847255, "activity_lines": [ 27.949333, 28.014182, 730.605143, 1229.155656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.39, "volume": 16896, "typical_volume": 28851.85, "trend": 1718.074, "fair_value": 2302.924487, "relative_strength": -98.814214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.493605, "energy": 63.720533, "activity_lines": [ 28.12, 28.051818, 605.519286, 1114.148925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }