{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb4322ac-1fd3-4dab-afbb-26574634c7b0", "symbol": "FINV", "name": "FinVolution Group", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 48.395, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.634, "architecture_energy": 10.7, "architecture_maturity": 34.11, "architecture_confidence": 59.259, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.84, "rotation_up": 25.3, "upward_expansion": 15.8, "deceleration": 34.67, "rotation_down": 29.39, "downward_expansion": 56.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.800667, 4.784727, 4.816391, 4.8393 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.86, "trend_reference": 4.875699, "distance_from_trend": -0.00322, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.571526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127708, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.659921, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.024683, "excess_performance": -0.150308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00322, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012411, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127708, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064765, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206599, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080026, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024683, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.981179, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1464869, "relative_activity": 0.355095, "balance": 0.981179, "dry_up": 0.436217, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096752, "annualized_volatility": 0.442558, "from_high_reference": -0.468475, "from_low_reference": 0.147432 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.875699, "fair_value_reference": 5.571526, "structural_low": 4.235545, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.017846, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.035323, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.155462, "worst_return": -0.180602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024387, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06797, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.458848, "worst_return": -0.299331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030879, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.061744, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.421811, "worst_return": -0.258403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.175084, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.063674, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.202861, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136268, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189599, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057441, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.161194, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059961, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148068, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059961, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.4361, "volume": 4678001, "typical_volume": 4185445.2, "trend": 3.959154, "fair_value": 3.834208, "relative_strength": 4.289367, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.94842, "energy": 36.73844, "activity_lines": [ 4.719333, 4.798364, 4.8245, 4.858354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.76, "volume": 2557201, "typical_volume": 5302290.9, "trend": 4.884163, "fair_value": 5.574212, "relative_strength": -22.991881, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.968553, "energy": 35.078195, "activity_lines": [ 4.714667, 4.782909, 4.815962, 4.850107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.75, "volume": 1522450, "typical_volume": 5073809.25, "trend": 4.872636, "fair_value": 5.573015, "relative_strength": -21.44485, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.610526, "energy": 31.762839, "activity_lines": [ 4.724667, 4.773091, 4.808965, 4.841451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.85, "volume": 1653562, "typical_volume": 4965668.1, "trend": 4.87071, "fair_value": 5.570966, "relative_strength": -19.505668, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.73426, "energy": 21.509472, "activity_lines": [ 4.762667, 4.781273, 4.812019, 4.839991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.86, "volume": 1464869, "typical_volume": 4125285.0, "trend": 4.875699, "fair_value": 5.571526, "relative_strength": -20.659921, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.634121, "energy": 10.700297, "activity_lines": [ 4.800667, 4.784727, 4.816391, 4.8393 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }