{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb4b1057-595d-41d6-a6bd-40f26ffe74ce", "symbol": "82800", "name": "Tracker Fund Of Hong Kong", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.725, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.053, "architecture_energy": 26.27, "architecture_maturity": 75.003, "architecture_confidence": 55.056, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.32, "rotation_up": 46.57, "upward_expansion": 28.06, "deceleration": 41.32, "rotation_down": 16.89, "downward_expansion": 50.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.226666, 21.713818, 21.831889, 22.053624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.459999, "trend_reference": 22.459049, "distance_from_trend": 4.2e-05, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.15974, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17225, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.936107, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.04775, "excess_performance": -0.014169, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 4.2e-05, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029562, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17225, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061006, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019361, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008974, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04775, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.981182, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 159008, "relative_activity": 0.316838, "balance": 1.981182, "dry_up": 0.80427, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031988, "annualized_volatility": 0.147087, "from_high_reference": -0.101451, "from_low_reference": 0.128643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.459049, "fair_value_reference": 19.15974, "structural_low": 19.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.009761, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": 0.000527, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.130897, "worst_return": -0.171859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.025436, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.002239, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.172479, "worst_return": -0.210247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.082056, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003048, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.057978, "worst_return": -0.124538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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21.228727, 21.781525, 22.150569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.6, "volume": 983510, "typical_volume": 588257.9, "trend": 22.566448, "fair_value": 19.051116, "relative_strength": -1.645764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.996973, "energy": 54.219275, "activity_lines": [ 21.062667, 21.219273, 21.732178, 22.084672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.959999, "volume": 252500, "typical_volume": 538132.9, "trend": 22.522166, "fair_value": 19.083237, "relative_strength": -1.558244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.873398, "energy": 29.673855, "activity_lines": [ 21.422666, 21.301818, 21.725536, 22.045546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.68, "volume": 219500, "typical_volume": 529957.9, "trend": 22.49262, "fair_value": 19.121819, "relative_strength": -1.872137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.889393, "energy": 21.255082, "activity_lines": [ 21.950666, 21.530545, 21.789442, 22.055729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.459999, "volume": 159008, "typical_volume": 501858.3, "trend": 22.459049, "fair_value": 19.15974, "relative_strength": -1.936107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.05255, "energy": 26.27018, "activity_lines": [ 22.226666, 21.713818, 21.831889, 22.053624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }