{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb4b94bc-004e-42eb-8f0f-95b81df83ceb", "symbol": "HERDEZ", "name": "Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.159, "architecture_energy": 79.686, "architecture_maturity": 30.732, "architecture_confidence": 90.947, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.87, "rotation_up": 19.89, "upward_expansion": 18.59, "deceleration": 38.87, "rotation_down": 70.12, "downward_expansion": 96.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.144667, 53.417455, 56.668845, 59.311415 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 51.150002, "trend_reference": 61.665609, "distance_from_trend": -0.170526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.094353, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10968, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.633202, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.120139, "excess_performance": -0.065473, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045099, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10968, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.328332, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177447, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120139, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.34291, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71144, "relative_activity": 0.318617, "balance": 1.34291, "dry_up": 1.945639, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068592, "annualized_volatility": 0.36884, "from_high_reference": -0.377916, "from_low_reference": 0.191867 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.665609, "fair_value_reference": 46.094353, "structural_low": 49.630001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.027381, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.018787, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.234554, "worst_return": -0.119442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008372, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016446, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.259905, "worst_return": -0.130532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024713, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003653, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.423455, "worst_return": -0.108571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.978004, "energy": 57.179037, "activity_lines": [ 55.249333, 56.518364, 60.397723, 62.042976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.099998, "volume": 104149, "typical_volume": 175438.45, "trend": 63.264004, "fair_value": 45.784266, "relative_strength": -9.719102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.901625, "energy": 69.774121, "activity_lines": [ 55.176666, 55.986909, 59.610539, 61.490756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.5, "volume": 92917, "typical_volume": 164736.2, "trend": 62.681695, "fair_value": 45.877821, "relative_strength": -16.946156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.990591, "energy": 80.9993, "activity_lines": [ 53.480666, 54.777454, 58.458046, 60.667272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.66, "volume": 1469558, "typical_volume": 229310.3, "trend": 62.144088, "fair_value": 45.98527, "relative_strength": -14.145658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.129974, "energy": 76.625752, "activity_lines": [ 52.951333, 54.163454, 57.602214, 60.020711 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.150002, "volume": 71144, "typical_volume": 223290.1, "trend": 61.665609, "fair_value": 46.094353, "relative_strength": -16.633202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.159147, "energy": 79.686243, "activity_lines": [ 52.144667, 53.417455, 56.668845, 59.311415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }