{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb5ecb17-b097-4f79-84db-f4c95ea0dcbe", "symbol": "MSGS", "name": "Madison Square Garden Sports Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.36, "architecture_energy": 47.909, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.503, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.19, "rotation_up": 50.97, "upward_expansion": 80.51, "deceleration": 66.09, "rotation_down": 26.04, "downward_expansion": 7.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 392.634, 390.860364, 378.269714, 363.730151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 389.99, "trend_reference": 343.180667, "distance_from_trend": 0.136399, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 227.474167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.714436, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.818613, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.396362, "excess_performance": 0.270737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.136399, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172377, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.714436, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153452, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.198186, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002684, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.396362, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.301798, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 868370, "relative_activity": 0.762862, "balance": 1.301798, "dry_up": 0.736858, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056341, "annualized_volatility": 0.259134, "from_high_reference": -0.052802, "from_low_reference": 1.06787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 343.180667, "fair_value_reference": 227.474167, "structural_low": 274.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.02013, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": 0.011256, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.16967, "worst_return": -0.142796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.051625, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004756, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.262992, "worst_return": -0.164591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.040018, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036372, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.391859, "worst_return": -0.188544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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359.320476, 343.719505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 381.9, "volume": 869811, "typical_volume": 1213696.65, "trend": 324.972, "fair_value": 222.633397, "relative_strength": 24.763369, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.866517, "energy": 55.111029, "activity_lines": [ 386.264, 380.748909, 362.808429, 347.702946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 396.87, "volume": 1016213, "typical_volume": 1196043.55, "trend": 329.988333, "fair_value": 223.941218, "relative_strength": 30.461518, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.138761, "energy": 57.928139, "activity_lines": [ 390.232667, 385.254727, 367.452381, 352.341527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 396.4, "volume": 830698, "typical_volume": 1177003.3, "trend": 334.532, "fair_value": 225.121731, "relative_strength": 29.76151, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.88738, "energy": 54.909451, "activity_lines": [ 393.232, 388.461636, 371.741048, 356.626151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 393.68, "volume": 639798, "typical_volume": 1163415.6, "trend": 339.026, "fair_value": 226.307115, "relative_strength": 26.284324, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.556534, "energy": 50.481869, "activity_lines": [ 393.571333, 390.358364, 375.375143, 360.442151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 389.99, "volume": 868370, "typical_volume": 1138305.7, "trend": 343.180667, "fair_value": 227.474167, "relative_strength": 19.818613, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.360106, "energy": 47.909335, "activity_lines": [ 392.634, 390.860364, 378.269714, 363.730151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }