{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb60c041-fcc5-4562-b2d3-53d5cfbc55e5", "symbol": "ELEC", "name": "\u00c9lectricite de Strasbourg Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.594, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.372, "architecture_energy": 79.453, "architecture_maturity": 16.399, "architecture_confidence": 79.813, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.45, "rotation_up": 8.73, "upward_expansion": 18.09, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 75.91, "downward_expansion": 91.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 182.773335, 191.569091, 201.815888, 205.985078 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 177.600006, "trend_reference": 210.175749, "distance_from_trend": -0.154993, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 134.730711, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.318185, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.605245, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.192727, "excess_performance": -0.246039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154993, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032657, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.318185, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.461998, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136052, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.370038, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192727, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.042361, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22890, "relative_activity": 3.044328, "balance": 1.042361, "dry_up": 1.843355, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084173, "annualized_volatility": 0.390538, "from_high_reference": -0.2506, "from_low_reference": 0.212287 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 210.175749, "fair_value_reference": 134.730711, 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218.244439, 218.778029, 217.188173, 214.034927 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 191.399994, "volume": 3430, "typical_volume": 6583.45, "trend": 206.959082, "fair_value": 129.540987, "relative_strength": -1.288943, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -17.2803, "energy": 23.496154, "activity_lines": [ 208.503566, 214.003129, 214.731637, 213.074986 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 205.0, "volume": 3851, "typical_volume": 6408.45, "trend": 207.909082, "fair_value": 130.375387, "relative_strength": 5.625499, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.690914, "energy": 28.802794, "activity_lines": [ 205.332202, 212.068192, 213.697006, 212.948593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 209.0, "volume": 2999, "typical_volume": 6219.95, "trend": 209.142415, "fair_value": 131.205654, "relative_strength": 5.596412, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.715724, "energy": 31.357988, "activity_lines": [ 205.313332, 210.989037, 213.114756, 213.018975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 205.0, "volume": 9469, "typical_volume": 6163.2, "trend": 210.209082, "fair_value": 132.017999, "relative_strength": 5.093533, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.365965, "energy": 40.914353, "activity_lines": [ 204.886666, 209.246942, 212.184887, 212.751722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 197.399994, "volume": 9049, "typical_volume": 6325.3, "trend": 210.622415, "fair_value": 132.777215, "relative_strength": 0.731604, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.658858, "energy": 42.862819, "activity_lines": [ 202.359998, 206.328482, 210.621684, 211.92533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 198.199997, "volume": 7275, "typical_volume": 6320.1, "trend": 211.329082, "fair_value": 133.544868, "relative_strength": 0.321907, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.537184, "energy": 46.838854, "activity_lines": [ 201.239997, 203.984607, 209.251815, 211.123883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 164.800003, "volume": 16226, "typical_volume": 6612.05, "trend": 210.722415, "fair_value": 134.095109, "relative_strength": -17.860756, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.150285, "energy": 81.146972, "activity_lines": [ 188.533332, 195.999691, 204.785756, 208.122007 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 177.600006, "volume": 22890, "typical_volume": 7518.9, "trend": 210.175749, "fair_value": 134.730711, "relative_strength": -13.605245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.371717, "energy": 79.453246, "activity_lines": [ 182.773335, 191.569091, 201.815888, 205.985078 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }