{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb61a461-e9a7-4a4b-b7c3-ac36929a7166", "symbol": "688528", "name": "Chengdu Qinchuan IoT Technology Co.Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.66, "architecture_energy": 58.356, "architecture_maturity": 21.319, "architecture_confidence": 83.28, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.22, "rotation_up": 13.57, "upward_expansion": 9.77, "deceleration": 47.2, "rotation_down": 67.9, "downward_expansion": 83.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.579333, 8.881091, 9.896286, 10.347871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.31, "trend_reference": 10.844333, "distance_from_trend": -0.141487, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.919103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061407, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.024441, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.187609, "excess_performance": -0.144405, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141487, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058243, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061407, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332575, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160244, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194167, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187609, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.460564, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10506393, "relative_activity": 1.131144, "balance": 0.460564, "dry_up": 1.154661, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120466, "annualized_volatility": 0.434566, "from_high_reference": -0.361454, "from_low_reference": 0.282369 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.844333, "fair_value_reference": 9.919103, "structural_low": 7.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.03656, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.011088, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.836193, "worst_return": -0.174147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.000276, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.003457, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.616246, "worst_return": -0.192249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.095226, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.083841, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.347319, "worst_return": -0.24772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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9.960385, "relative_strength": -23.607676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.2032, "energy": 87.485785, "activity_lines": [ 8.916, 9.716909, 10.537952, 10.833333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.65, "volume": 12316619, "typical_volume": 9165526.55, "trend": 10.965, "fair_value": 9.940192, "relative_strength": -29.557041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.443446, "energy": 89.173803, "activity_lines": [ 8.400667, 9.203091, 10.22781, 10.612903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.44, "volume": 10935543, "typical_volume": 9219442.85, "trend": 10.893, "fair_value": 9.926218, "relative_strength": -22.159425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.803487, "energy": 81.584036, "activity_lines": [ 8.319333, 8.921091, 10.01281, 10.45 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.31, "volume": 10506393, "typical_volume": 9288290.9, "trend": 10.844333, "fair_value": 9.919103, "relative_strength": -16.024441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.66003, "energy": 58.3561, "activity_lines": [ 8.579333, 8.881091, 9.896286, 10.347871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }