{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb666e34-9595-4b52-88b8-5ad6ddc412b7", "symbol": "000628", "name": "ChengDu Hi-Tech Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.358, "architecture_energy": 85.536, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.428, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.8, "rotation_up": 8.69, "upward_expansion": 21.41, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 79.21, "downward_expansion": 97.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.344916, 41.075888, 48.115303, 50.355061 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 39.009998, "trend_reference": 52.110799, "distance_from_trend": -0.251403, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 48.298059, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.192307, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.698205, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.230572, "excess_performance": -0.237972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.251403, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002607, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 32.570277, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.012327, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.001349, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.384831, "worst_return": -0.122648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.104683, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.025443, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.477825, "worst_return": -0.133191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.261981, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.135774, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.280993, "worst_return": 0.124223, "sufficient": false }, { 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53.348205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.759998, "volume": 75702233, "typical_volume": 51590996.95, "trend": 52.637466, "fair_value": 48.010534, "relative_strength": -30.227202, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.85947, "energy": 89.191848, "activity_lines": [ 39.219461, 44.752215, 51.005246, 52.242433 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.669998, "volume": 52463571, "typical_volume": 50932280.95, "trend": 52.296799, "fair_value": 48.146382, "relative_strength": -26.889596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.490322, "energy": 88.916131, "activity_lines": [ 37.539195, 42.494869, 49.408417, 51.212274 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.009998, "volume": 43498074, "typical_volume": 50850646.4, "trend": 52.110799, "fair_value": 48.298059, "relative_strength": -25.698205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.357971, "energy": 85.535542, "activity_lines": [ 37.344916, 41.075888, 48.115303, 50.355061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }