{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb66ff18-1fb0-485d-a376-ee01b12f7dc3", "symbol": "BPOS", "name": "bpost NV/SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -90.274, "architecture_energy": 90.198, "architecture_maturity": 47.694, "architecture_confidence": 83.921, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.79, "rotation_up": 12.45, "upward_expansion": 19.95, "deceleration": 38.39, "rotation_down": 80.71, "downward_expansion": 95.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.489333, 1.546473, 1.630667, 1.707022 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.38, "trend_reference": 1.830667, "distance_from_trend": -0.246176, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.579996, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.465115, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.026007, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.38255, "excess_performance": -0.556797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.246176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057297, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.465115, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.43026, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13269, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.38255, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.215312, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4017, "relative_activity": 1.300379, "balance": 0.215312, "dry_up": 0.380774, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065106, "annualized_volatility": 0.353752, "from_high_reference": -0.460938, "from_low_reference": 0.017699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.830667, "fair_value_reference": 2.579996, "structural_low": 1.356, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.015152, "positive_rate": 0.390244, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": -0.0286, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.356241, "worst_return": -0.252376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.107973, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.110582, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.743849, "worst_return": -0.270327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.163067, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.114638, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.272439, "worst_return": -0.271538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.104311, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.137161, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.180042, "worst_return": -0.44854, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.468339, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032407, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002105, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019956, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12156, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011765, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013761, 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"activity_lines": [ 1.622133, 1.659455, 1.72401, 1.804004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.6, "volume": 687, "typical_volume": 5906.75, "trend": 1.89, "fair_value": 2.633581, "relative_strength": -33.861459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.945518, "energy": 74.411029, "activity_lines": [ 1.611867, 1.644618, 1.706533, 1.784391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.522, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3550.75, "trend": 1.873733, "fair_value": 2.616941, "relative_strength": -37.094838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.16909, "energy": 64.736304, "activity_lines": [ 1.582533, 1.617782, 1.684248, 1.760649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.518, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 3327.45, "trend": 1.8555, "fair_value": 2.600089, "relative_strength": -36.455281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.183826, "energy": 75.961677, "activity_lines": [ 1.557733, 1.592473, 1.663133, 1.737699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.38, "volume": 4017, "typical_volume": 3089.1, "trend": 1.830667, "fair_value": 2.579996, "relative_strength": -43.026007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.273977, "energy": 90.198084, "activity_lines": [ 1.489333, 1.546473, 1.630667, 1.707022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }