{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb6f5a6f-53fe-43e6-98c3-6f14b8ae5dc4", "symbol": "VTI", "name": "VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.742, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.25, "architecture_energy": 54.761, "architecture_maturity": 53.267, "architecture_confidence": 77.88, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.11, "rotation_up": 55.1, "upward_expansion": 81.04, "deceleration": 62.28, "rotation_down": 25.89, "downward_expansion": 7.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 372.19, 369.958395, 365.949997, 358.690492 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 381.78, "trend_reference": 350.578289, "distance_from_trend": 0.089001, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 287.101881, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.329772, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.007561, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.123291, "excess_performance": -0.002334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089001, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034525, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.329772, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009052, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -7.6e-05, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003824, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123291, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.544259, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14980644, "relative_activity": 0.869491, "balance": 1.544259, "dry_up": 0.865009, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025028, "annualized_volatility": 0.139156, "from_high_reference": -0.00394, "from_low_reference": 0.237441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 350.578289, "fair_value_reference": 287.101881, "structural_low": 310.399, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.013541, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.001109, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.064491, "worst_return": -0.049195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.038239, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.000438, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.138657, "worst_return": -0.063915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.090727, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.00396, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.162052, "worst_return": -0.169798, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 18733182.0, "trend": 348.130389, "fair_value": 285.042464, "relative_strength": -0.010437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.347468, "energy": 45.896439, "activity_lines": [ 367.323333, 367.069052, 362.012786, 355.294991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 368.21, "volume": 15735860, "typical_volume": 17609367.9, "trend": 349.22935, "fair_value": 286.02528, "relative_strength": -0.170236, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.254981, "energy": 43.295121, "activity_lines": [ 367.694667, 367.302576, 363.43786, 356.59045 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 381.78, "volume": 14980644, "typical_volume": 17229213.05, "trend": 350.578289, "fair_value": 287.101881, "relative_strength": -0.007561, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.249578, "energy": 54.761088, "activity_lines": [ 372.19, 369.958395, 365.949997, 358.690492 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }