{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb76b951-6907-4893-b443-5e56bcc80261", "symbol": "PSCX", "name": "PACER SWAN SOS CONSERVATIVE (JANUARY) ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.108, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.926, "architecture_energy": 83.914, "architecture_maturity": 41.264, "architecture_confidence": 77.632, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.01, "rotation_up": 68.21, "upward_expansion": 92.69, "deceleration": 46.5, "rotation_down": 24.62, "downward_expansion": 17.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.9371, 32.788009, 32.557194, 32.204945 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 33.255, "trend_reference": 31.801323, "distance_from_trend": 0.045711, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.909204, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191542, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.950655, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066207, "excess_performance": -0.059418, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045711, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020415, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191542, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000589, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049507, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000392, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066207, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.984349, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 926, "relative_activity": 0.121324, "balance": 0.984349, "dry_up": 0.409862, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008036, "annualized_volatility": 0.063041, "from_high_reference": -0.021912, "from_low_reference": 0.130738 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.801323, "fair_value_reference": 27.909204, "structural_low": 29.97, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.010177, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.005233, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.039647, "worst_return": -0.039163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.026731, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.016393, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.052612, "worst_return": -0.013977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0548, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.044119, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.10515, "worst_return": 0.039648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 32.624513, 32.548422, 32.186841, 31.887602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.7148, "volume": 2366, "typical_volume": 8041.1, "trend": 31.619453, "fair_value": 27.724694, "relative_strength": -3.113467, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.589074, "energy": 82.443257, "activity_lines": [ 32.672707, 32.589747, 32.276366, 31.962054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.6505, "volume": 3773, "typical_volume": 7782.0, "trend": 31.67397, "fair_value": 27.783661, "relative_strength": -2.631451, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.641533, "energy": 80.756751, "activity_lines": [ 32.681407, 32.611567, 32.352428, 32.028573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.8889, "volume": 5448, "typical_volume": 7818.8, "trend": 31.736157, "fair_value": 27.84536, "relative_strength": -2.850576, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.40224, "energy": 81.58363, "activity_lines": [ 32.767533, 32.670542, 32.442715, 32.106955 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.255, "volume": 926, "typical_volume": 7632.45, "trend": 31.801323, "fair_value": 27.909204, "relative_strength": -4.950655, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.92576, "energy": 83.913528, "activity_lines": [ 32.9371, 32.788009, 32.557194, 32.204945 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }