{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb78d9f5-013a-45fc-aabf-1281d116a1f7", "symbol": "PARAGMILK", "name": "Parag Milk Foods Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.798, "architecture_energy": 18.243, "architecture_maturity": 16.903, "architecture_confidence": 53.584, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.99, "rotation_up": 17.56, "upward_expansion": 20.86, "deceleration": 67.29, "rotation_down": 52.02, "downward_expansion": 32.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 219.674665, 224.50618, 224.215285, 220.857591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 223.220001, "trend_reference": 221.309667, "distance_from_trend": 0.008632, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 217.789827, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024933, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.725853, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.040327, "excess_performance": 0.003382, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008632, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115442, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031061, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097259, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017834, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040327, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.765526, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3557164, "relative_activity": 1.455426, "balance": 0.765526, "dry_up": 0.820977, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058207, "annualized_volatility": 0.31041, "from_high_reference": -0.407826, "from_low_reference": 0.255173 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 221.309667, "fair_value_reference": 217.789827, "structural_low": 177.839996, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.037866, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.029083, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.218713, "worst_return": -0.151515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.086323, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.081713, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.362181, "worst_return": -0.182322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.112029, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.091738, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.642317, "worst_return": -0.184604, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 214.199997, "volume": 1950645, "typical_volume": 2592610.6, "trend": 225.892, "fair_value": 217.155369, "relative_strength": -10.637306, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.291758, "energy": 9.437274, "activity_lines": [ 224.741997, 227.661089, 224.220999, 221.583139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 214.309998, "volume": 1346367, "typical_volume": 2479372.5, "trend": 222.884001, "fair_value": 217.397208, "relative_strength": -12.701123, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.867595, "energy": 20.67993, "activity_lines": [ 220.073331, 225.310907, 223.839475, 220.835913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 223.220001, "volume": 3557164, "typical_volume": 2444071.25, "trend": 221.309667, "fair_value": 217.789827, "relative_strength": -9.725853, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.797786, "energy": 18.243305, "activity_lines": [ 219.674665, 224.50618, 224.215285, 220.857591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }