{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb7b3cd4-7ca0-4f50-beee-b93c48b10a7a", "symbol": "U15E", "name": "UBS BBG MSCI US Liquid Corp 1-5 Sustainable UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 54.413, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.466, "architecture_energy": 42.94, "architecture_maturity": 42.147, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.53, "rotation_up": 14.15, "upward_expansion": 8.21, "deceleration": 41.08, "rotation_down": 56.4, "downward_expansion": 81.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.801733, 10.811418, 10.818038, 10.825798 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.82, "trend_reference": 10.839867, "distance_from_trend": -0.001833, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.449699, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035437, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.577828, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006245, "excess_performance": -0.177137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001833, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00083, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035437, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010841, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027525, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006245, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.04474, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2124, "relative_activity": 0.092944, "balance": 0.04474, "dry_up": 0.091128, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00445, "annualized_volatility": 0.025825, "from_high_reference": -0.016185, "from_low_reference": 0.011404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.839867, "fair_value_reference": 10.449699, "structural_low": 10.732, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005336, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.020039, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.021005, "worst_return": -0.007722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01583, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.05326, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.023738, "worst_return": 0.003339, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.026078, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.095096, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.028177, "worst_return": 0.02413, 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.127954, "energy": 11.660816, "activity_lines": [ 10.832, 10.825745, 10.830457, 10.840047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.838, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 48259.1, "trend": 10.848067, "fair_value": 10.418378, "relative_strength": -14.980419, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.871663, "energy": 13.880771, "activity_lines": [ 10.8348, 10.827782, 10.829933, 10.839389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.81, "volume": 3788, "typical_volume": 47977.6, "trend": 10.847267, "fair_value": 10.424609, "relative_strength": -14.458837, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.294459, "energy": 15.723175, "activity_lines": [ 10.8288, 10.825127, 10.827152, 10.836933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.822, "volume": 2497, "typical_volume": 41720.4, "trend": 10.846067, "fair_value": 10.430949, "relative_strength": -12.763481, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.820067, "energy": 13.595261, "activity_lines": [ 10.826, 10.824945, 10.826048, 10.835303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.784, "volume": 1296, "typical_volume": 41451.6, "trend": 10.844067, "fair_value": 10.437135, "relative_strength": -12.556715, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.833972, "energy": 36.456537, "activity_lines": [ 10.8112, 10.818291, 10.821924, 10.831299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.78, "volume": 2413, "typical_volume": 23673.0, "trend": 10.8412, "fair_value": 10.443231, "relative_strength": -12.775563, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.030139, "energy": 49.458587, "activity_lines": [ 10.797333, 10.811091, 10.818019, 10.827166 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.82, "volume": 2124, "typical_volume": 22852.45, "trend": 10.839867, "fair_value": 10.449699, "relative_strength": -14.577828, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.465581, "energy": 42.939923, "activity_lines": [ 10.801733, 10.811418, 10.818038, 10.825798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }