{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cb7c73d6-aaa1-4602-94ac-78023c69e749", "symbol": "AWP", "name": "abrdn Global Premier Properties Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.134, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.804, "architecture_energy": 65.55, "architecture_maturity": 10.066, "architecture_confidence": 71.119, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.33, "rotation_up": 68.83, "upward_expansion": 87.32, "deceleration": 45.83, "rotation_down": 11.01, "downward_expansion": 13.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.033425, 11.921708, 11.773563, 11.68946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.9, "trend_reference": 11.600384, "distance_from_trend": 0.025828, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.062263, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182637, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.236087, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.053802, "excess_performance": -0.071823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025828, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023628, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182637, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016158, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062361, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009814, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053802, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.547707, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 607885, "relative_activity": 0.849555, "balance": 1.547707, "dry_up": 1.613803, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027281, "annualized_volatility": 0.215125, "from_high_reference": -0.038772, "from_low_reference": 0.139689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.600384, "fair_value_reference": 10.062263, "structural_low": 10.441447, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.002291, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.018358, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.094527, "worst_return": -0.141318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.012169, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.027449, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.190719, "worst_return": -0.057198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.000822, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05226, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.206666, "worst_return": -0.137917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 12.23, "volume": 923855, "typical_volume": 712724.3, "trend": 11.536429, "fair_value": 10.016981, "relative_strength": 0.595843, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.109062, "energy": 78.051395, "activity_lines": [ 12.028278, 11.832544, 11.697298, 11.634613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.06, "volume": 903970, "typical_volume": 714582.55, "trend": 11.573449, "fair_value": 10.04061, "relative_strength": -1.793251, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.434954, "energy": 72.280062, "activity_lines": [ 12.065766, 11.896398, 11.745103, 11.668392 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.9, "volume": 607885, "typical_volume": 715533.15, "trend": 11.600384, "fair_value": 10.062263, "relative_strength": -6.236087, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.804273, "energy": 65.549682, "activity_lines": [ 12.033425, 11.921708, 11.773563, 11.68946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }