{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cba73a5b-63a2-4993-b777-cf910b85373b", "symbol": "KIE", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P INSURANCE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.832, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.703, "architecture_energy": 69.926, "architecture_maturity": 16.417, "architecture_confidence": 71.479, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.68, "rotation_up": 77.21, "upward_expansion": 91.82, "deceleration": 46.39, "rotation_down": 12.66, "downward_expansion": 13.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.265333, 63.247117, 60.794474, 59.538532 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 64.56, "trend_reference": 58.414259, "distance_from_trend": 0.10521, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.551037, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205579, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.537289, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.088709, "excess_performance": -0.036916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10521, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015494, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205579, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120482, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015373, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119668, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088709, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.723387, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5584963, "relative_activity": 0.916663, "balance": 2.723387, "dry_up": 0.989521, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037094, "annualized_volatility": 0.176425, "from_high_reference": -0.029611, "from_low_reference": 0.207971 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.414259, "fair_value_reference": 53.551037, "structural_low": 53.445, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.005632, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.46875, "median_excess_return": -0.003794, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.065606, "worst_return": -0.08473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.026116, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.013015, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.109727, "worst_return": -0.113761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004459, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009767, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.184261, "worst_return": -0.099511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 88.761922, "activity_lines": [ 63.798, 61.850755, 59.627867, 58.73417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.24, "volume": 5493934, "typical_volume": 6176194.95, "trend": 58.250189, "fair_value": 53.399422, "relative_strength": 1.284222, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.893689, "energy": 83.831916, "activity_lines": [ 64.084667, 62.58204, 60.217621, 59.131448 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.56, "volume": 5584963, "typical_volume": 6092709.95, "trend": 58.414259, "fair_value": 53.551037, "relative_strength": -1.537289, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.703036, "energy": 69.925565, "activity_lines": [ 64.265333, 63.247117, 60.794474, 59.538532 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }