{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cba909c1-f1f2-4676-8eb7-b58bdd0e347b", "symbol": "JP40", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi JPX-Nikkei 400", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.016, "architecture_energy": 43.827, "architecture_maturity": 54.938, "architecture_confidence": 85.386, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.02, "rotation_up": 43.88, "upward_expansion": 72.52, "deceleration": 91.37, "rotation_down": 28.15, "downward_expansion": 10.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 247.806666, 247.408183, 243.865001, 239.864302 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 254.949997, "trend_reference": 234.941667, "distance_from_trend": 0.085163, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 192.730448, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.322832, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.089194, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.120167, "excess_performance": 0.055527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085163, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055728, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.322832, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039757, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060892, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069488, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120167, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.189916, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1609, "relative_activity": 1.204251, "balance": 2.189916, "dry_up": 0.751067, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028211, "annualized_volatility": 0.187276, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.305027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 234.941667, "fair_value_reference": 192.730448, "structural_low": 212.449997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.022376, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.014551, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.081177, "worst_return": -0.022721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011592, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.001827, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137693, "worst_return": -0.072201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.002098, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.002996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.094268, "worst_return": -0.087134, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "up", "direction": 71.776893, "energy": 83.616735, "activity_lines": [ 249.253337, 246.249093, 240.04262, 236.242366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 240.100006, "volume": 1294, "typical_volume": 1736.65, "trend": 231.390001, "fair_value": 190.986538, "relative_strength": 7.026157, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.637485, "energy": 50.785814, "activity_lines": [ 246.643338, 245.555457, 240.505716, 236.873335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 245.199997, "volume": 551, "typical_volume": 1470.3, "trend": 232.620001, "fair_value": 191.528205, "relative_strength": 7.680445, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.042704, "energy": 43.883639, "activity_lines": [ 245.753336, 245.749093, 241.450239, 237.764302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 244.0, "volume": 560, "typical_volume": 1379.35, "trend": 233.780001, "fair_value": 192.092692, "relative_strength": 4.612809, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.878328, "energy": 30.17122, "activity_lines": [ 244.853335, 245.62182, 242.186192, 238.498496 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 254.949997, "volume": 1609, "typical_volume": 1336.1, "trend": 234.941667, "fair_value": 192.730448, "relative_strength": 6.089194, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.016096, "energy": 43.827228, "activity_lines": [ 247.806666, 247.408183, 243.865001, 239.864302 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }