{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbae42e7-ffe0-4063-bd86-7e377e0342fc", "symbol": "301516", "name": "Shenzhen VAPEL Power Supply Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.393, "architecture_energy": 30.581, "architecture_maturity": 15.326, "architecture_confidence": 93.41, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.97, "rotation_up": 21.52, "upward_expansion": 5.19, "deceleration": 47.69, "rotation_down": 50.33, "downward_expansion": 76.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.25, 16.264545, 17.241571, 17.596107 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.0, "trend_reference": 17.719333, "distance_from_trend": -0.097031, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.057563, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.113945, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.554395, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019608, "excess_performance": -0.027008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097031, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004233, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.113945, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296286, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115544, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125629, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019608, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.766451, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30907087, "relative_activity": 0.756611, "balance": 0.766451, "dry_up": 1.214044, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160673, "annualized_volatility": 0.711703, "from_high_reference": -0.328859, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.719333, "fair_value_reference": 18.057563, "structural_low": 14.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.076465, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.056391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088545, "worst_return": 0.064385, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.070245, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.120225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102786, "worst_return": 0.037703, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.025387, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.338747, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.025387, "worst_return": -0.025387, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 18.111953, "relative_strength": 1.395579, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.49615, "energy": 11.034025, "activity_lines": [ 17.310667, 17.035636, 18.001571, 18.00529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.08, "volume": 51105368, "typical_volume": 43047639.4, "trend": 17.738667, "fair_value": 18.097012, "relative_strength": -8.911797, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.379805, "energy": 11.504724, "activity_lines": [ 17.141333, 16.753636, 17.781952, 17.899011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.75, "volume": 33256026, "typical_volume": 41094359.85, "trend": 17.706333, "fair_value": 18.072581, "relative_strength": -14.648599, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.280853, "energy": 25.567519, "activity_lines": [ 16.507333, 16.336, 17.442286, 17.706193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.0, "volume": 30907087, "typical_volume": 40849365.55, "trend": 17.719333, "fair_value": 18.057563, "relative_strength": -11.554395, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.392762, "energy": 30.580651, "activity_lines": [ 16.25, 16.264545, 17.241571, 17.596107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }