{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbaf0ba4-9a5f-4624-83a0-ceb9d0edb90e", "symbol": "CMPS", "name": "Compass Pathways\u00a0Plc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.84, "architecture_energy": 25.025, "architecture_maturity": 76.221, "architecture_confidence": 95.163, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.14, "rotation_up": 32.58, "upward_expansion": 60.68, "deceleration": 85.31, "rotation_down": 27.25, "downward_expansion": 19.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.348, 12.675636, 12.007238, 10.799656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.54, "trend_reference": 9.364333, "distance_from_trend": 0.445912, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.819135, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.985589, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 54.878592, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.187399, "excess_performance": 0.999945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.445912, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.3104, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.985589, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.455178, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.548786, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097571, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.187399, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.517398, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19636248, "relative_activity": 0.984424, "balance": 1.517398, "dry_up": 0.951615, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161578, "annualized_volatility": 0.948505, "from_high_reference": -0.120779, "from_low_reference": 2.410579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.364333, "fair_value_reference": 6.819135, "structural_low": 4.88, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028861, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.004346, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.232108, "worst_return": -0.188136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.274038, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.256675, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.55706, "worst_return": -0.283898, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.145763, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.278667, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.284333, "worst_return": -0.18149, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.364679, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.576687, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000962, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.232108, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043413, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07024, 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"fair_value": 6.75234, "relative_strength": 53.862237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.469826, "energy": 50.247321, "activity_lines": [ 13.289333, 13.020909, 11.441429, 10.208581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.26, "volume": 15633655, "typical_volume": 19650258.05, "trend": 8.993667, "fair_value": 6.76625, "relative_strength": 40.502426, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.377433, "energy": 35.166613, "activity_lines": [ 12.578667, 12.770182, 11.577524, 10.364645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.35, "volume": 12376421, "typical_volume": 19602540.9, "trend": 9.153667, "fair_value": 6.784327, "relative_strength": 38.88289, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.264349, "energy": 23.819151, "activity_lines": [ 11.982667, 12.519636, 11.699905, 10.516667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.54, "volume": 19636248, "typical_volume": 19946932.25, "trend": 9.364333, "fair_value": 6.819135, "relative_strength": 54.878592, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.840281, "energy": 25.024674, "activity_lines": [ 12.348, 12.675636, 12.007238, 10.799656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }