{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbb1b9c3-f88e-4c84-8915-860a89e45a6f", "symbol": "FLT", "name": "Volatus Aerospace Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.104, "architecture_energy": 79.524, "architecture_maturity": 22.267, "architecture_confidence": 92.047, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.84, "rotation_up": 11.93, "upward_expansion": 19.25, "deceleration": 37.39, "rotation_down": 74.26, "downward_expansion": 94.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.503333, 0.529909, 0.581881, 0.615882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.51, "trend_reference": 0.640167, "distance_from_trend": -0.203332, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.355468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.434729, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.534285, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02, "excess_performance": -0.100421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203332, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015128, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.434729, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.57978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275343, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.358817, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.293571, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6232700, "relative_activity": 0.952885, "balance": 0.293571, "dry_up": 0.789982, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11991, "annualized_volatility": 0.557353, "from_high_reference": -0.426966, "from_low_reference": 0.228916 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.640167, "fair_value_reference": 0.355468, "structural_low": 0.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.054545, "positive_rate": 0.354839, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.035718, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 1.28125, "worst_return": -0.288462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.15102, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.104927, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.40625, "worst_return": -0.352941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.074627, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.143645, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 2.405405, "worst_return": -0.395918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.390244, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.8, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.326923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, 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3188700, "typical_volume": 7482885.0, "trend": 0.646667, "fair_value": 0.353353, "relative_strength": -29.204502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.566781, "energy": 81.418125, "activity_lines": [ 0.529333, 0.559273, 0.610952, 0.634989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.485, "volume": 4381600, "typical_volume": 7076055.0, "trend": 0.6445, "fair_value": 0.354314, "relative_strength": -29.184054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.965194, "energy": 84.36341, "activity_lines": [ 0.509, 0.540727, 0.594429, 0.624559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.51, "volume": 6232700, "typical_volume": 6540875.0, "trend": 0.640167, "fair_value": 0.355468, "relative_strength": -27.534285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.10442, "energy": 79.52373, "activity_lines": [ 0.503333, 0.529909, 0.581881, 0.615882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }