{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbb331cf-0123-4618-b8b1-51b6484f1d10", "symbol": "688682", "name": "Shanghai Hollywave Electronic System Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.368, "architecture_energy": 79.921, "architecture_maturity": 36.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.542, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.24, "rotation_up": 9.44, "upward_expansion": 18.88, "deceleration": 37.32, "rotation_down": 77.51, "downward_expansion": 94.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.191333, 33.288174, 37.911794, 40.489927 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.67, "trend_reference": 44.576331, "distance_from_trend": -0.289533, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.526503, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004552, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.091337, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.371128, "excess_performance": -0.327924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.289533, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004552, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.586578, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220913, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.422857, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.371128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.735999, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6537760, "relative_activity": 0.77906, "balance": 0.735999, "dry_up": 1.024503, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.185389, "annualized_volatility": 0.624715, "from_high_reference": -0.566164, "from_low_reference": 0.240987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.576331, "fair_value_reference": 31.526503, "structural_low": 25.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.029701, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.006899, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.409749, "worst_return": -0.327337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.263965, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.057793, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.492024, "worst_return": -0.43111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.091933, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.043687, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.503142, "worst_return": -0.510901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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9686292, "typical_volume": 8332080.75, "trend": 46.192664, "fair_value": 31.661159, "relative_strength": -29.574581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.253682, "energy": 83.71194, "activity_lines": [ 32.383032, 36.094181, 40.133364, 42.49683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.700001, "volume": 6819078, "typical_volume": 8351910.15, "trend": 45.284331, "fair_value": 31.565657, "relative_strength": -27.59721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.304951, "energy": 84.567189, "activity_lines": [ 30.486, 34.231067, 38.842222, 41.368271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.67, "volume": 6537760, "typical_volume": 8391856.2, "trend": 44.576331, "fair_value": 31.526503, "relative_strength": -22.091337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.368025, "energy": 79.920889, "activity_lines": [ 30.191333, 33.288174, 37.911794, 40.489927 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }