{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbbdb094-9926-4294-b36b-047d1103ba56", "symbol": "EWJV", "name": "ISHARES MSCI JAPAN VALUE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.836, "architecture_energy": 73.548, "architecture_maturity": 31.51, "architecture_confidence": 80.606, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.22, "rotation_up": 72.84, "upward_expansion": 90.62, "deceleration": 43.7, "rotation_down": 14.13, "downward_expansion": 14.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.770527, 46.084206, 45.265057, 44.639418 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.14, "trend_reference": 44.008776, "distance_from_trend": 0.093873, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.174179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.451129, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.04831, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.073546, "excess_performance": -0.113908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093873, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054449, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.451129, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057611, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020483, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067382, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073546, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.634681, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1007878, "relative_activity": 1.211936, "balance": 3.634681, "dry_up": 1.210324, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032176, "annualized_volatility": 0.222402, "from_high_reference": -0.00246, "from_low_reference": 0.364088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.008776, "fair_value_reference": 33.174179, "structural_low": 39.983833, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.017071, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.007433, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.120877, "worst_return": -0.132857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.046605, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.070153, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.223126, "worst_return": -0.069403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.109034, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.016906, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.237261, "worst_return": -0.074387, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 923640.9, "trend": 43.304704, "fair_value": 32.747392, "relative_strength": -0.52056, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.045155, "energy": 35.375683, "activity_lines": [ 45.224053, 45.056145, 44.350898, 43.972518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.19, "volume": 1150523, "typical_volume": 870971.85, "trend": 43.535158, "fair_value": 32.881855, "relative_strength": 3.821998, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.612131, "energy": 51.787047, "activity_lines": [ 45.549887, 45.285003, 44.60323, 44.158666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.62, "volume": 724880, "typical_volume": 834295.05, "trend": 43.773184, "fair_value": 33.023315, "relative_strength": 4.005579, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.244175, "energy": 60.66727, "activity_lines": [ 45.983053, 45.563757, 44.875584, 44.357688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.14, "volume": 1007878, "typical_volume": 831626.5, "trend": 44.008776, "fair_value": 33.174179, "relative_strength": 2.04831, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.836198, "energy": 73.54774, "activity_lines": [ 46.770527, 46.084206, 45.265057, 44.639418 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }