{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbc0db9a-9120-4791-bd50-077616d8089f", "symbol": "605222", "name": "Shanghai QiFan Cable Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.727, "architecture_energy": 67.48, "architecture_maturity": 23.842, "architecture_confidence": 65.795, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.65, "rotation_up": 17.05, "upward_expansion": 24.14, "deceleration": 43.45, "rotation_down": 69.48, "downward_expansion": 63.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.760667, 20.384061, 24.531142, 24.953319 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.77, "trend_reference": 24.651511, "distance_from_trend": -0.198021, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.211239, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.085593, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.191698, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.055874, "excess_performance": -0.01267, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198021, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057865, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.085593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.036676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081917, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.886176, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055874, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.839273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38296194, "relative_activity": 0.661357, "balance": 0.839273, "dry_up": 0.690143, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189414, "annualized_volatility": 0.710199, "from_high_reference": -0.54944, "from_low_reference": 0.270566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.651511, "fair_value_reference": 18.211239, "structural_low": 16.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.013934, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021367, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.258494, "worst_return": -0.101828, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.046439, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.048058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.250689, "worst_return": -0.100957, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.027727, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059676, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.032169, "worst_return": -0.146755, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017083, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058371, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025239, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025985, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011357, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02236, "active": false }, { 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.23871, "energy": 61.400625, "activity_lines": [ 21.161777, 23.820205, 26.823171, 26.119611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 43505112, "typical_volume": 60382720.05, "trend": 24.604178, "fair_value": 18.217539, "relative_strength": -14.801057, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.317101, "energy": 65.930303, "activity_lines": [ 19.652667, 22.159518, 25.953907, 25.672653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.290001, "volume": 41219269, "typical_volume": 59950067.15, "trend": 24.605511, "fair_value": 18.206544, "relative_strength": -12.487954, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.708329, "energy": 70.261916, "activity_lines": [ 18.824667, 20.972357, 25.160692, 25.265287 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.77, "volume": 38296194, "typical_volume": 57905494.9, "trend": 24.651511, "fair_value": 18.211239, "relative_strength": -8.191698, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.726976, "energy": 67.479802, "activity_lines": [ 18.760667, 20.384061, 24.531142, 24.953319 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }