{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbc2d717-51fd-4659-99ad-da8647f7ae4a", "symbol": "AMAX", "name": "STARBOARD INVESTMENT TRUST ADAPTIVE HEDGED MULTI-ASSET INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.577, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.406, "architecture_energy": 28.333, "architecture_maturity": 21.397, "architecture_confidence": 68.593, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.71, "rotation_up": 20.53, "upward_expansion": 14.06, "deceleration": 60.45, "rotation_down": 48.91, "downward_expansion": 68.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.470204, 7.462993, 7.565175, 7.609351 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.58, "trend_reference": 7.666504, "distance_from_trend": -0.011283, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.905268, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.319102, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02129, "excess_performance": -0.146915, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011283, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00278, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097713, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073391, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113191, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054334, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02129, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.10414, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 136150, "relative_activity": 0.53611, "balance": 1.10414, "dry_up": 0.684809, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02957, "annualized_volatility": 0.109896, "from_high_reference": -0.099199, "from_low_reference": 0.051791 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.666504, "fair_value_reference": 6.905268, "structural_low": 7.316538, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024571, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.010021, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.067079, "worst_return": -0.015674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.060466, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.014846, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064835, "worst_return": 0.056096, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.145453, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.054144, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152911, "worst_return": 0.137994, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7.61243, 7.648967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.415544, "volume": 198464, "typical_volume": 265772.25, "trend": 7.671719, "fair_value": 6.886163, "relative_strength": -9.762943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.993307, "energy": 56.288248, "activity_lines": [ 7.415865, 7.474855, 7.589995, 7.631968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.41, "volume": 229704, "typical_volume": 251277.6, "trend": 7.668839, "fair_value": 6.89511, "relative_strength": -10.539919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.740236, "energy": 46.645019, "activity_lines": [ 7.416996, 7.450218, 7.568878, 7.615083 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.58, "volume": 136150, "typical_volume": 253958.85, "trend": 7.666504, "fair_value": 6.905268, "relative_strength": -11.319102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.406233, "energy": 28.332543, "activity_lines": [ 7.470204, 7.462993, 7.565175, 7.609351 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }