{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cbc459c6-ed44-4bdf-a980-da666ae63a1f", "symbol": "THG", "name": "THG Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.956, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.701, "architecture_energy": 11.849, "architecture_maturity": 57.721, "architecture_confidence": 76.085, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.8, "rotation_up": 26.23, "upward_expansion": 14.63, "deceleration": 38.74, "rotation_down": 30.73, "downward_expansion": 62.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.314867, 0.312004, 0.316493, 0.319938 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.3352, "trend_reference": 0.33148, "distance_from_trend": 0.011222, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.485024, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.308901, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.734244, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.089625, "excess_performance": -0.140861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011222, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120292, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.308901, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097588, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147342, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021769, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.964953, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21133654, "relative_activity": 1.213785, "balance": 0.964953, "dry_up": 0.887323, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071785, "annualized_volatility": 0.544668, "from_high_reference": -0.362131, "from_low_reference": 0.279389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.33148, "fair_value_reference": 0.485024, "structural_low": 0.272, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.038868, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.050762, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.678212, "worst_return": -0.476828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.058899, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.113136, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.627987, "worst_return": -0.458222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.192616, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.244048, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.8592, "worst_return": -0.528273, "sufficient": true }, 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"activity_lines": [ 0.30548, 0.307785, 0.314785, 0.319995 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.3352, "volume": 21133654, "typical_volume": 17411371.7, "trend": 0.33148, "fair_value": 0.485024, "relative_strength": -14.734244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.701451, "energy": 11.849199, "activity_lines": [ 0.314867, 0.312004, 0.316493, 0.319938 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }